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Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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I was lucky enough to get the number two pick in my family league, which meant that for the second year in a row I would have Adrian Peterson on my team.  I think highly enough of Peterson to consider him the second best option in fantasy football for the 2008 season, which means it will probably come as a surprise that I would rather have Michael Turner or Willie Parker in week one.

AccuScore provides forecasted player projections each week for every player as a tool to help you make lineup decisions.  Each Friday I will dig through the rankings, find the surprises that I agree with, and present those to you as the truth for that week.  That brings me back to Peterson.

This week AccuScore has Peterson ranked as the 15^th best running back option.  Guys like Michael Turner and Willie Parker, taken a few rounds later, are ranked in the top 12.  While I think Peterson will be better than Parker and Turner over the season, I don’t think it’s happening this week.  Last year Peterson was held to just 45 yards at Green Bay.  The Packers had the 14^th ranked run defense in the league last year, and only allowed six rushing touchdowns, tied for fewest in the league with the Steelers.

Meanwhile Parker goes up against Houston, ranked as the 19^th run defense.  Only four teams allowed more yards per carry than the Texans, who allowed 4.4 yards per carry last season.  Turner takes on the Detroit Lions, who had the 23^rd ranked run defense, and allowed 19 rushing touchdowns, second only to the Oakland Raiders.

Now does this mean I’m not going to start Peterson this week?  Of course not.  I’ve got Peterson, Thomas Jones, Selvin Young, and Kevin Smith as my running back options, and we start two backs, with one spot for a flex option.  While I don’t think Peterson is going to be a top option this week, I do think he will be better than Smith, who is the odd-man out in my lineup for week one.  Then again, if you’ve got Turner, Parker, and Peterson, and can only start two, I’d go with Turner and Parker this week.

The Truth About Week One

AccuScore projected points in parenthesis.

-Jeff Garcia (15.9) will be a top 12 quarterback this week against the Saints.  AccuScore simulations have him putting up more points than Peyton Manning (15.2), Donovan McNabb (15.6), Derek Anderson (15), Brett Favre (14.1), Kurt Warner (14.7), and Carson Palmer (13), just to name a few.

-Matt Hasselbeck (12.7) will struggle without Deion Branch and Bobby Engram in the lineup.  AccuScore projects 210 yards and a touchdown.

-Nate Burleson (9.8) will benefit from the loss of Branch and Engram in Seattle, and will be a top 15 receiver this weekend.  He’s catching four passes for 54 yards and a touchdown in half of simulations.

-Aaron Rodgers (13.9) will throw for more yards than Brett Favre.  AccuScore has Rodgers throwing for 232, while Favre is throwing for 212.

-The quarterback bust of the week will be Carson Palmer, who is throwing for 223 yards with one touchdown and one interception in AccuScore simulations.

-No player will put up more yards this week than Brian Westbrook (22.7).  AccuScore has Westbrook putting up 107 yards on the ground and 52 receiving yards against the Rams defense.

-Adrian Peterson (12.5) will not be a top 12 running back.  AccuScore has him ranked 15^th with 79 rushing yards and a touchdown in 54 percent of simulations.

-Michael Turner (15.2) and Willie Parker (13.5), generally taken three rounds after Peterson, will be top 12 running backs this week.  Both are gaining more yards than Peterson in AccuScore simulations.

-Larry Johnson (10.5) will be this week’s first round bust, rushing for only 60 yards with a touchdown in a third of simulations.

-Maurice-Jones Drew (14), Willie Parker, Ricky Williams (12.3), Selvin Young (11.9), Earnest Graham (11.7), Justin Fargas (10.3), and DeAngelo Williams (9.4) will all outscore their running back platoon mates this week.

-Kenny Watson (4) will out-perform Chris Perry (8.9).  AccuScore has Watson running for 3.4 yards per carry, with Perry running for just 2.7 yards per carry.

-Andre Johnson (10.8) will catch more passes than any receiver.  Johnson is catching ten percent more passes in AccuScore simulations than the number two receiver, Wes Welker (11.2).

-Despite the name change, Chad Johnson (9.2) will not be a top 15 receiver.  AccuScore forecasts 70 yards for Johnson.

-Despite the name change, I will never refer to Chad Johnson as Chad Ocho Cinco.  That’s just ridiculous.

-Receivers taken after the 5^th round who will be solid number two options this week:  Burleson, Laveranues Coles (9.8), Joey Galloway (8.8), Roddy White (7.9).

-Receivers taken after the top 100 who will be a great number three option this week:  Reggie Williams (6.9), Michael Jenkins (6.5), D.J. Hackett (6.5), Isaac Bruce (6).

-Tight ends who will catch a touchdown this week:  Heath Miller (7.8), Ben Watson (8.2), Antonio Gates (8.8), Jason Witten (9.5), and Dallas Clark (6.7).

-Sleeper tight end of the week:  Vernon Davis (7.9), ranked fifth in AccuScore simulations with 55 yards and a touchdown in 42 percent of simulations.

-The Arizona Cardinals (16.2) will score more fantasy points than the Minnesota Vikings (15.3), Chicago Bears (8.5), and San Diego Chargers (12.6).  AccuScore has the Cardinals recording four sacks and two turnovers against the 49ers.

-Defensive bust of the week:  The Chicago Bears, ranked 24^th in AccuScore simulations.

-The following defenses will be top 12 units in week one:  Arizona, Cincinnati (13.1), Denver (13.1), Detroit (12.8), NY Jets (11.9), and Oakland (11.4).