Super Bowl Sunday asks the public one question, “Who are you going to take?”  There are a lot of different ways to look at the Super Bowl and plenty of financial opportunity. Tim Williams has detailed the dozens of prop bets, but this article is not about that.

Super Bowl XLII is the New England Patriots chance to cement their legacy as the greatest football team of all time at 19-0. So with the current point spread being 12.5 points, why isn’t the public rushing to get down on the Patriots?
 
Vegas odds makers create a line to have action evenly distributed on each team with the goal of profiting the 10% off the losing player’s decision. Vegas has done their job and delivered a thought provoking number that has supporters on both sides thinking they have found a bargain. But what have they really found?
 
As detailed in Stan Rosenfield’s article “The 87% Trend,” 33 of 38 Super Bowl’s have resulted in the winning team also winning the bet. If the trend continues, and odds are it will, getting the points won’t matter in a blowout and are unnecessary in an upset. The points will make you feel better right before kick off, but it is not a sound business decision.

After 10,000 simulations, AccuScore lists the Giants with a 25% win probability. According the Vegas, the odds on the Giants winning the game straight up is 4.5-to-1, which converts into a win probability of 22%. Vegas is not only offering 4x the return on investment with the Giants, but are adding an additional 50 cents on the dollar (3%) if the Giants pull the upset.

Remember, 87% percent of the time, the winning team wins the bet!

On the flip side, it is pretty hard to resist taking the Patriots and laying the 12.5 points. They might be the greatest team of all time and their coach has proven that he is nearly unbeatable in big games. They have the best quarterback since Joe Montana (and perhaps all time) and numerous ways to beat you. So taking the 18-0 Patriots against a team they already beat is the obvious play…or is it?

The upside is you get Brady, Moss and Maroney. The downside is you are now tied to these alarming trends:

• AccuScore shows the Patriots winning by an average of 9.5 points meaning you are getting charged upwards of 3-points (with no odds) to take them.
• The Patriots have not covered the spread only once since Thanksgiving (8-weeks).
• In week 17, the Giants held a 2 possession lead in the 2nd half against the Patriots.
• The Giants are not intimidated and have had two weeks to prepare.
• The Patriots have struggled in games where they play a team for the second time (Jets, Chargers).
• Patriots have struggled to control the tempo against teams with aggressive pass rushes.
• The Patriots are willing to be patient on offense and shorten the game with long drives instead of big plays

No matter who you choose to go on Sunday, your hands are full and you will need to get lucky. There are no sure things in sports and this Super Bowl is no exception.