Is it possible to go 12-8 (60%) on the point spread, over/under and player props and still be way off?

The answer is a resounding yes.

Why did the Giants win?
For one day, Eli Manning was a much bigger stud than Tom Brady.  Eli’s stats were actually quite close to what AccuScore forecasted.  Eli passed for 1 more completion and 25 more yards than forecasted.  Remember that amazing play where Eli avoided the sack and passed for 32 yards to David Tyree?  That play accounted for the difference between the forecast and the actual stats as well as the difference in the game.

The Giants did not get much out of the running game.  Brandon Jacobs came up way short of his forecast (forecasted for 15 carries 71 yards, managed just 42 on 14 carries).  Eli, with extra help from #3 and #4 receivers, David Tyree and Steve Smith, deserves all the credit in the world for this win.

The Giants defense obviously did their part in the win.  While their pass rush will get most of the credit, I was equally impressed by the run defense.  Laurence Maroney looked like he would have a good game with a long kick return and a few nice carries and a touchdown on the Patriots’ opening possession, but he was ineffective for the rest of the game.  He was shut down in Week 17 against the Giants and was shut down again in the Super Bowl.  Maroney tore up the other teams he played the past 6 games so the Giants rush defense deserves a ton of credit as well.

Why did the Patriots lose?
New England played scared.  The Giants pass rush dominated and the Patriots were not able to or willing to take chances downfield.  I wish TV could show the entire field so you could tell what the coverage was like on Moss on those 21 completions Tom Brady made for just 169 yards (8 yards per).  I know Brady had to get rid of the ball quickly to avoid taking even more hits and sacks, but I also think that he relied too heavily on the short passes and played into the hands of the Giants’ defense.  Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk should be the 2nd or 3rd option, not the first option. The Patriots should have learned from Week 17.  They fell behind overly relying on the short pass, but then came back when they took chances downfield. 

You could put some blame on the Patriots’ defense inability to stop Eli on the final drive.  However, I don’t think you can blame a team that allowed just 17 points in the Super Bowl. 

Betting Review
As I said, even though AccuScore was 12-8 on bets, I’m not going to sit here and tout the record.  The fact is NO ONE had this game going this way.  NO ONE who relied on statistics in any way would ever expect just 10 points total through 3 quarters.

There were 3 cases where AccuScore’s prediction was the same as the betting line resulting in under 50% probability of either side so these cases (Bradshaw 10 carries, Jacobs 15 Rush Attempts, Maroney 1 Rec) and 1 push (Moss 5 receptions), but in the other 20 bets where AccuScore’s betting prediction % was over 50% the overall record was a strong 12-8.

The Patriots poor offensive performance through 3 quarters really caused most of the wrong predictions.  If the Patriots had the lead in the 2nd half, as most expected, then Laurence Maroney would have had 20 carries and not just 14.  With a lot more passing Tom Brady had 21 completions in the 2nd half to go over 25.5.  And with the Patriots not taking more chances downfield Brady came up slightly under 270.5 passing yards.  Ultimately, the Patriots lost and cost us a few of these bets because they were not the same explosive offense that they were in the first 3 months of the season.

What Next?
Eli Manning should be able to parlay this performance into dating whoever is on the cover of this year’s Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue.  It’s time for Eli to “pull a Namath” and parlay an incredible performance into a life of fan adoration and debauchery.  I guess it would be OK if Eli decided to stay humble, work hard, and try to actually become an elite QB in the regular season and possibly win another Super Bowl in his career, but that would be boring.  Personally, I’d love it if Eli were on the sideline in 25 years slurring his speech and asking some sideline reporter for a kiss.  I think he has earned the right to go this route and this is probably what I’d do if I were him. 

I was never one of those people who thought that it was a good thing for a great team to lose one or two regular season games to alleviate pressure.  After this Patriots loss (and the UNLV team that lost to Duke) I definitely think it’s a good idea.  Assuming the Patriots re-sign Randy Moss, they will be the favorite to win next year’s Super Bowl.  I’m probably going to put some $$ down on the Patriots to win in ’09.