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AccuScore
San Diego Chargers Preview
Stephen Oh & Aaron Feldstein
AccuScore Analysts

In his first year as head coach of the San Diego Chargers, Norv Turner did something no Charger coach had been able to do in 14 years; win a playoff game.

Now in his second year behind the clipboard, AccuScore forecasts Turner's Chargers to cruise to an AFC West win with a 78 percent chance of winning the division. Even with a shaky start to the 2007 Season, the Chargers finished with an impressive +8 average margin of victory. AccuScore expects them to have a healthy +7 average margin of victory in 2008.

The Chargers are only as good as their running back LaDainian Tomlinson. Despite fullback Lorenzo Neal not returning this year, Tomlinson should improve on his 2007 season. AccuScore projects the former MVP to rush for over 1700 yards with 19 total touchdowns. The projected 300 yard improvement is worth noting for fantasy football owners who are still considering who they should draft in the higher rounds.

The AccuScore computer sees Tomlinson's improvement as they catalyst in the Chargers wining 11 games this year, with a playoff probability of 84.7 percent.

On most teams, tight end is not a position to focus on. But for quarterback Phillip Rivers, it is the first place he is going to look. Antonio Gates returns for his sixth season with the Chargers, and is thought of as one of the premiere tight ends in the league. Although AccuScore projects his production to go down from a year ago, he will still be the most productive receiver in the Chargers offense. Gates is expected to finish the year with 914 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Despite their forecasted success, the Chargers are a clear third in the AFC to the Patriots and Colts. Looking ahead this season, The Chargers are winning just 38 percent of simulations in their Week 6 game against New England and 39 percent when they host Indianapolis in Week 12.

For these numbers to improve, Philip Rivers will have to work on his interception rate. Rivers had 19 INTs in 19 total games in 2007 and is averaging 2.5 interceptions in two games against the Patriots and Colts. However, if Rivers throws no interceptions against the Patriots the Chargers' winning percentage goes from 38 to 53 percent and from 39 to 56 percent against the Colts. In fact, if Rivers cuts his interceptions by 40 percent (like 2006 level) the Chargers challenge the Patriots for the top record in the AFC.

For more information on AccuScore projections about the San Diego Chargers, click here to see how the Chargers will start the season against Steve Smith and the Carolina Panthers.