The Chargers and Colts met in week 10, with the Chargers taking a 23-21 victory.  Peyton Manning played one of his worst games, throwing for six interceptions, and the Colts ended up losing when Adam Vinatieri missed what would be a game winning 29 yard field goal.  Don’t count on the same poor play from the Colts this time around.

AccuScore projects Manning to throw for 298 yards and two or more touchdowns in 40 percent of simulations.  While the six interceptions last time around was uncharacteristic by Manning, it was nothing new for the San Diego secondary, who led the league with 30 interceptions this season.  AccuScore projects at least one interception by Manning, with a ten percent chance of two or more.  Antonio Cromartie and Clinton Hart, who combined for half of San Diego’s interceptions this season, will not only need to post a few picks, but limit Manning in the passing game.

The Chargers will need All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman and now healthy defensive tackle Luis Castillo to assist with putting the pressure on Manning.  In the seven games where Manning was sacked two or more times he only put up one passer rating greater than 90.  In the nine games with fewer than two sacks allowed, Manning has topped the 90 mark every time, topping the 100 mark seven times, and topping the 125 mark five times.

The Colts held LaDanian Tomlinson to 76 yards and a touchdown on just 21 carries in their last meeting, while holding Philip Rivers to 104 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Chargers will need a better effort from Tomlinson in order to keep the ball away from Rivers and avoid costly turnovers.  The Colts have been known to give up big yards on the ground this season.  They allowed 149 yards against Oakland, 168 yards to Jacksonville, and 112 yards to Atlanta in the last six weeks.  San Diego will need a similar performance to stand a chance this weekend.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts will need solid play from star safety Bob Sanders, specifically in shutting down Philip Rivers.  The pass rush has taken a hit since the last meeting, with the loss of Dwight Freeney, but linebacker Gary Brackett, who led the team in tackles, should help to fill the void left by Freeney, keeping pressure on Rivers and helping to contain LT.

Key Match-ups:

-Bob Sanders vs Philip Rivers
-Gary Bracket vs LaDanian Tomlinson
-Antonio Cromartie vs Peyton Manning