Redskins-Giants Preview

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The NFL season opens on Thursday night with the Washington Redskins taking on the defending Super Bowl champions, the New York Giants. AccuScore simulated the game 10,000 times, and found that the Giants are carrying their winning ways in to the 2008 season, beating Washington in 61.7 percent of simulations by an average score of 24-20.

Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward are giving the Giants an incredibly strong rushing attack, with the trio combining for over 150 yards on the ground against the Redskins defense. Jacobs leads the group with 85 yards and a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations. The strong rushing game is helping to take pressure off of Eli Manning, who is passing for 208 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

The Redskins come in to this game dealing with several wide receivers banged up, and Jason Taylor expected to miss the game on defense. Jason Campbell is throwing for 224 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, despite having Santana Moss and James Thrash as his only healthy receivers. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are combining for 80 yards on the ground, with a touchdown in just half of simulations.

The Redskins defense will most likely have to wait until week two for Jason Taylor to make his debut. Washington is sacking Eli Manning one time, and forcing two turnovers. Meanwhile the Giants have injuries of their own, with Osi Umenyiora missing the season. Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka are filling in for Umenyiora with two sacks in 60 percent of simulations, leading the Giants to force two turnovers.

Which Eli Manning will show up?

Eli Manning was having a borderline average season last year for a quarterback. Up until week 17 he had only thrown more than two touchdowns in a game one time, and had only thrown more than one touchdown a total of four times in the 15 games played. He was averaging 208.5 yards per game with 1.43 touchdowns and 1.25 interceptions. Then something happened in week 17: Eli turned in to a different quarterback.

There’s no explanation yet as to what happened. Was this Eli Manning coming into his own and living up to the potential that made him the top pick of the 2004 draft? Was this a result of Jeremy Shockey being out of the lineup, allowing Manning to move the ball around to other parts of the offense? Or was it just blind luck?

You could argue for any of the above points, but what is agreeable is that Eli Manning was a much better quarterback from week 17 through the Super Bowl. He averaged 221 yards per game, with two touchdowns and only threw two interceptions in the five game stretch, which is quite a feat for someone who threw 19 in the previous 15 games.

Now the question is which Eli Manning will show up? Current AccuScore simulations suggest that the old Eli Manning will be in attendance on Thursday night, with Manning averaging 208 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The Giants are managing to win with this effort in 61.7 percent of simulations.

AccuScore simulated the new and improved Manning to see how the Giants’ chances improved. When Manning is throwing for 221 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions, the Giants are winning a whopping 80.2 percent of simulations by an average score of 32-21. The Giants are favored either way, but stand a much better chance if Manning can carry his success over in to the 2008 season.

Running game is the key for Washington

The Redskins planned to put a lot of emphasis on the pass this year, putting the ball in the hands of young quarterback Jason Campbell. That plan may not go so well in game one. Rookie receiver Malcolm Kelly is expected to miss two weeks with a knee injury. Other rookie Devin Thomas is struggling with the playbook, and probably won’t see much playing time. Antwaan Randle El will be playing with a broken bone in his left hand, which should hurt his numbers.

That leaves Santana Moss and James Thrash as the only healthy receivers, which puts the Redskins in a jam if the running game is ineffective. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are only combining for 80 yards on the ground, with the Redskins winning just 38.3 percent of simulations. AccuScore ran a few custom simulations to see how important the running game was to the Redskins this week.

In games where Portis and Betts are combining for 50 yards or less, the Redskins are losing 81.8 percent of simulations to the Giants by an average score of 27-16. In games where Portis and Betts are running for 100 yards or more, the Redskins are actually coming away with the victory in 64.2 percent of simulations, winning by an average score of 25-21. In these games Jason Campbell is seeing a spike in his completion percentage, touchdowns, and a drop in interceptions.

The plan to go with a pass heavy offense may work for the remainder of the season, but it might be a bad call in week one. The Giants are putting a strong rushing attack on Jason Campbell, and Campbell is working with a banged up group of receivers. The Redskins need to focus on running the ball successfully, which will shift the focus of the Giants’ defense from rushing the passer to stopping the ball. This will take pressure off of Jason Campbell, allowing the young quarterback to be more efficient with the receivers he has to work with in week one.

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