In several key match-ups this season the AccuScore simulation showed that the Patriots’ chances were better when they relied heavily on the pass.  For example, in Week 2, before people realized that the Patriots would break passing records this season, AccuScore showed how passing the ball 70%+ of the time increased the Patriots’ chances by 6 percentage points.  This strategy also helped their chances of beating the Colts in Indianapolis this season.

Not surprisingly, I immediately figured that a pass heavy strategy would be beneficial to the Patriots in the Super Bowl.  I was surprised by the simulation:  passing 70% of the time (vs. 55% for the baseline) did not help, or hurt, the team.

Here is Tom Brady’s simulation averages for the baseline vs. the pass heavy scenario:

While 362 yards and 3 TDs would definitely get Brady the MVP, it only increased winning percentage by 1 percentage point.

There are 2 factors for why this pass heavy strategy isn’t having the same impact that it had earlier in the season.  At the start of the season Laurence Maroney was not putting up great numbers and even though backup Sammy Morris had several great games, he was injured in Week 6 and could not help carry the rushing load. 

When Maroney was ineffective giving him fewer carries and Brady more chances to pass was a good idea.  Now that Maroney is having his most productive stretch of his career this strategy is no longer a superior option.

The second factor is Randy Moss’s drop in production.  Opposing defenses have been far more effective in keeping him from making a ton of 20, 30, and 40+ yard receptions.  While this ends up leaving WRs like Wes Welker wide open for short passes, the defense is better off conceding short passes than those huge home run passes to Moss.

So this brings up a slightly different scenario:  Should the Patriots pass a lot while also forcing the ball to Moss?  Tom Brady’s completion percentage was over 80% when he targeted Wes Welker.  When he targeted Randy Moss his percentage was very high, 60%, but not nearly as high as with Welker.  Under this scenario the Patriots pass the ball 70% of the time while also targeting Randy Moss for a lot of long passes downfield.

This scenario actually hurt the team lowering their winning percentage to 74% (down slightly from baseline).  Randy Moss’s individual stats go from 4.5 receptions, 89 yards, 0.7 TDs all the way up to 7.4 receptions, 125 yards, 1.4 TDs, but forcing it to Moss is not a good idea in this match-up.  It worked in the Patriots Week 17 win over the Giants when Brady passed it 60 yards to Moss right after he dropped a 50 yard pass, but the Patriots were playing from behind and needed a big play to swing momentum. 

If they stick with their normal game-plan of recent weeks (run Maroney plenty, keep the chains moving with Welker, use Moss to draw multiple defenders) the Patriots should be able to play the game from ahead and win the game.