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“People spend money they don’t have, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t care about.” -Will Smith While it’s no Mark Twain quote, and probably won’t be featured in any quote books, the above quote by the artist formerly known as “The Fresh Prince” is one of my favorites. We’re in a time where the real life market is crashing, and while I’m no economist, I can’t help but think it is due to the confusion between “wants” and “needs”. Plenty of people thought they “needed” the big house on the hill, or a new Mercedes, figuring they could squeeze it in to their budget while the economy was good, while not thinking ahead to a time when the economy was bad. The “need” for these flashy amenities is usually fueled by public perception that says no successful person drives around in a 1998 Ford Ranger, and no successful couple settles for a two bedroom, one and a half bathroom house. People “needed” bigger houses, and “needed” flashy cars, and unfortunately they either couldn’t afford it, or sacrificed some real “needs” for what really was a “want”. The truth is that if the Ford Ranger runs, there’s no need to upgrade, and if you’re only going to sleep in one bedroom, there’s no need for more, with the exception of a guest bedroom. The same rules apply to fantasy football trades. You’ve got Roddy White, the equivalent of the 1998 Ford Ranger. He’s not flashy, he’s not in high demand, and you are always worried that he will just stop working one day. You may think about browsing the lot of new cars, looking for a nice Mercedes like Reggie Wayne or Brandon Marshall. The problem is that you don’t really “need” these options. You have a perfectly good wide receiver, just not a big, flashy name receiver. Going back to the opening quote, people spend money they don’t have, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t care about. You’re not going to get Reggie Wayne for Roddy White straight up, which means you’re going to have to include more in the deal, potentially cutting in to your running back depth for this slight upgrade. In other words, you’re spending money you don’t have to buy something you don’t need. As for the people you don’t care about? They’re the people who say you can’t have a successful fantasy football team with Roddy White as one of your starting wide receivers. If you’ve got White on your team you’re either a contender with depth that shouldn’t be spent on this type of upgrade, or you’re not a contender, in which case you probably don’t have much depth, and don’t need to be spending what you do have on this roster spot, which is perfectly fine. When trading, it is important to analyze your “needs” and figure out which is a “need” and which is a “want”. I’m not saying Roddy White is better than Reggie Wayne, but he’s certainly close, he’s a top fantasy wide receiver, and he’s probably not an area of “need” on your roster. He’s the 1998 Ford Ranger that still runs fine. You may not get a lot of longing looks, but the fantasy championship he will drive you to is the same as money in the bank. Guys I’m trading for Chris Johnson – I’m still trading for Chris Johnson. His upcoming schedule looks great. Kansas City this weekend, Indianapolis next weekend, and Green Bay in two weeks, all poor running defenses this season. If you’re a contender, he plays Houston in week 15, which could help propel you to the finals of your league. Joseph Addai – Addai is out for two to four weeks, which could put some fantasy owners in a bind. It could also mean Addai will now come at a discounted price if you are in position to stash him on your bench for the playoffs. I’m targeting all of the Addai owners with losing records in my league and seeing if they will part with the struggling, and injured running back for the price of an Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones, or even Larry Johnson level running back. Roddy White – He’s currently the third ranked receiver in fantasy football, with only Larry Fitzgerald and Greg Jennings scoring more points. If you don’t have him he will probably come at a discounted rate, as most owners don’t consider him at the same level as a Reggie Wayne or a Terrell Owens. You could spend a fortune on those guys, or you could go the cheap route with White, and get the same results. Anquan Boldin – There’s the injury factor to consider, and there’s also the bye week for Arizona. It looks like Boldin will return next week, which makes now the final opportunity to buy low on him. Even while missing time he’s number six in fantasy points scored for receivers, and is in the same class as top performers like Jennings, Wayne, and his teammate Fitzgerald. Matt Schaub – He’s probably a backup on most rosters, which means a decent offer will land him. His remaining schedule looks good enough to make him a starter. He plays Detroit, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Indianapolis, Cleveland, and the Raiders in week 17. The only down weeks on the schedule are Baltimore in week 10, and Tennessee in week 16. He’s a starter in every other week, with several possibilities for monster performances. Guys I’m dealing Brett Favre – Take out his six touchdown and one interception game against the Cardinals, and Favre has thrown seven touchdowns and five interceptions this season, only topping the 200 yard mark on one occasion. Favre has decent matchups in week seven and eight, taking on the Raiders and Chiefs, so it’s likely he puts up solid numbers this weekend. If you can’t deal him this week, don’t try to force it, and wait until he puts up a better performance than last weekend against the Bengals. However, I’d deal him straight up for Schaub, or even Jason Campbell, who I’m sold on as being legit. T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Carson Palmer is injured, the Bengals running game is a joke, and Houshmandzadeh seems to be the only receiver who cares about his performance on the field. He’s managed to put up solid numbers so far, but with Palmer’s injury status unknown, I don’t trust him over the next few weeks, or even for the rest of the season with the disaster the Bengals have been. DeSean Jackson – Jackson has certainly made a big impact to a lot of fantasy teams, and is a decent number two option. However, with Brian Westbrook injured, and Donovan McNabb’s health always a risk, Jackson loses some of his value. I’d see if I could deal him straight up for Roddy White, as I think White will have better numbers the remainder of the season. Thomas Jones – Jones had an easy matchup against the Bengals, and destroyed them for 25 fantasy points. That’s ten more fantasy points than he scored in the previous three games, and only six fewer points than he had for the season, heading in to that game. Don’t expect those kind of numbers from Jones every week, especially with Brett Favre wanting to carry the team on his back. Donovan McNabb – Here is the issue with McNabb. It’s not that he’s a bad quarterback. If I have him on my team, and I do in a few leagues, I’m starting him. The problem is that he’s injury prone, missing 14 games in the last three seasons. I’ve got him and Jay Cutler in one of my leagues, so I’m fine if he goes down, but in another league my only starting option is McNabb, and I’m not comfortable with that risk. Deals of the Week This past weekend I bought low on Anquan Boldin, sending Ryan Grant and T.J. Houshmandzadeh for Boldin and Chris Johnson. The owner couldn’t really wait for Boldin to return, and needed a running back as Johnson was on a bye week. I had Steve Smith and Donald Driver ready to go in my wide receiver position, and I took a gamble with Ricky Williams in my flex spot, which paid off. The timing of the deal was great, as Joseph Addai went down the next day, giving me an immediate replacement in Johnson, with a solid group of receivers that includes Smith, Boldin, Driver, and Eddie Royal.
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KICK THE LIVING PUJOLS OUT OF THEM
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hi tim! i sent you a message on another article of yours, i guess you didnt check it...well i wanted to thank your for helping me win my fantasy baseball league...you guided me through trades and pick ups and just wanted to say thanks a lot! im having a problem on my fanatasy football team, its head to head non keeper...should i trade super underachieving ryan grant for injured joseph addai? or should i trade tj whosyourmomma and ryan grant for willie parker...my other recievers are anquan boldin, lee evens and dwane bowe, my other running backs are a.p. and steve slaton...THANKS! |
JWo
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I just wanted to write you back and say THANKS for the advice to start Garcia. It definitely paid off. I ended the day with 122 points, which was the second highest of the week. Unfortunately I was playing the person (my wife) that end up with the highest score. But the fact that I FINALLY got something right (thanks to your help) made the loss sting a little less. Who knew Colston would lay an egg?? I know he won't continue that streak though so I'm hoping to turn things around in the next couple of weeks. You guys ROCK! JWo |
twilliams
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Ryan, As much as the Steelers fan in me wants to say Roethlisberger, I manage my fantasy teams with my head, and not my heart. I came upon this same scenario in one league where I have Warner as my QB. I was offered Roethlisberger by another owner playing to my Steelers interests, but opted to stick with Warner. Both are productive, both have good offenses surrounding them, but I like the Steelers defense better than the Cardinals, which means Arizona will be in more shootouts with the passing game, while the Steelers will be running the clock out in the second half more often. Throw in the two games against the Rams for Warner, and I'm saying you should take Warner, but accept the deal so that you get credit when Big Ben explodes on the Bengals this weekend. |
twilliams
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JWO, Rivers vs Garcia. Rivers is going up against a good Buffalo defense that has allowed 184 passing yards per game, 4 passing TDs, and 3 interceptions. The Bills have given up 114 yards per game on the ground, and Chris Chambers is hurt, which makes me think San Diego will focus on winning with the run more than the pass. Garcia goes up against a Seattle passing defense that has given up 9 passing TDs and an average of 229.6 yards per game through the air. Garcia is the safer bet this week. For the running backs, there is talk that Addai might play this weekend, so Rhodes is a risk until we hear more closer to game time. I like Earnest Graham this week, as he will get some points through the short passing game, which is the majority of Garcia's game. Portis is a must start. As for the package for Westbrook or Fitzgerald, it might not be a good move. You're in need of a lot of wins right now. A package for one of those two is going to cost you one of your better players, plus more. That's a little risky. Let's say you dealt Colston, Graham, and Holmes for Westbrook (he's not going to come cheap when healthy). If one of Colston/Graham/Holmes goes down, you've still got the other two. If Westbrook goes down, the season is over for you. You don't need Fitzgerald with Colston, Johnson, Jackson, and Holmes. You're also pretty solid with Portis and Graham. Graham/Portis is not ideal, so maybe you could work out a deal where you pair one of your receivers with Graham for an upgrade. However, if you think Westbrook, you're going to pay an arm and a leg. Everyone in your league is offering deals for Westbrook. I know, because I've got Westbrook in a few leagues, and I'm getting offers for him all the time, even when injured. Hope this helps, and thanks for checking us out! -Tim |
Ryan741
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Tim, I was offered Kurt Warner, and I would be giving up Big Ben. Who do you like more the rest of the season? |
JWo
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I just found your site and I instantly bookmarked it. It's truly amazing. Because I didn't start Rivers, Calvin Johnson and Graham last week I'm currently sitting at 2-4 instead of in a five-way tie at 3-3. Anyway... I'm looking for some lineup help for Week 7. QB: Rivers, Garcia RB: Portis, Graham, Rhodes, McClain, Sproles (pick 2) Graham's been inconsistent but has a TD in his last seven home games. Is he a better start that Rhodes against Green Bay? For my QB, I'm leaning toward Rivers since he burned me last week but the whole West to East Coast scares me. Garcia scares me too though. Which one is the least scary? For my receivers, I've got Calvin Johnson, Colston, Holmes, D. Henderson and DeSean Jackson. If Colston returns as planned then Henderson becomes expendable and I could pick up Mason, Camarillo or Hillard. Lastly, I'm trying to put together a trade for Larry Fitzgerald and/or Westbrook. Is there a package of my players that would be attractive? I've asked a lot so I better stop. Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated. JWo Woodstock, IL |
twilliams
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A guy who was panicking over his team, and buying high on Ronnie Brown's recent performances, while selling low on Barber's last two weeks. |
Jackie Treehron
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Who traded Barber for Ronnie Brown and Bulger? Are you in a wives league or maybe a work league? |
jmanasse
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Tim - at this point in the season, after Brady going down who was my top QB - I have nothing but high risk high reward choices to make. There are too few medium players available, and at this point, i have to go for the reward. No reason to play for 5th place... |
General Zod
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Hey Tim. Always a good read. Do you think Larry Johnson belongs in the buy low category? I have been offered LJ for Thomas Jones. Also, do you think Welker bounces back? |
twilliams
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You could afford to lose Scheffler, and my current love for the Broncos pushed me towards that part of the deal. Our trade was actually the second deal I made this week where I sent Turner for a package containing Chris Johnson. I just am not sold on Turner until I see a great game, or even a good game, against a team that is not at the bottom of the NFL in rushing defense. I also like the consistency that Johnson provides. He seems like guaranteed double digit points each week. Aside from that, you've stacked up a nice roster. A lot of high risk/high reward type guys, but that's only a bad thing if you experience more of the high risk, and less of the high reward. |
jmanasse
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The real question here Tim is why your wrote this article after trading Turner to me? Look at the end of the season schedule for Turner. so when I add Ronnie Brown, and Brandon Jacobs with Michael Turner and DeSean Jackson, is that 1, 2, 3 punch more valuable than what I have given up? Eli Manning...Calvin Johnson Tony Scheffler? FYI - I hav ecooley as my back up Tight end... |
Tom_In_Norwalk
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As a Steelers fan, you should know the scoop on Anderson. Take away that aberation in week 2 last year and his season was average at best. Look at his last 5 or so games along with the first two games this year. People are already talking about Brady Quinn, even though Quinn didn't look all that hot in the preseason against DETROIT! I think Anderson is a high-risk QB now, especially with the injuries on offense, including two OL. And as a Steelers fan, you would trade away Willie Parker, who now has a new appreciation for the position and seems to be doing a good job of persuading his HC to use him in the red zone and goal line? He obviously delivered in week 1. |
Tarheel4life
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I traded Roy Williams for Ryan Grant this week and I've got a deal in the works I give up Derek Anderson and Dwayne Bowe for Reggie Bush and Steve Smith. What do you think about that one? |
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