| NFL Trade Market: Week Eight |
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We’re about a week away from Halloween, which means one thing: it’s time for stores to put Christmas decorations on sale. Each year it gets earlier and earlier, to the point where eventually we will be buying Christmas decorations right after we finish taking down the tree from the previous season. Some people get their shopping done early, allowing them their choice of the gifts they want to buy. Others wait until the day after Thanksgiving sales, wading through the madness to grab a deal on whatever is left. The retail stores are basically saying it is acceptable to look ahead to December 25th, even if the calendar reads October 31st. I say, why wait until October 31st? Let’s take a look now. Only I’m not focused on December 25th. I’m focused on December 11th through December 22nd. That’s right, it’s the span we all look forward to, starting at the end of August: week 15 and 16 of the NFL season, more commonly known as the fantasy football playoff weeks. While everyone else is waiting for the “day after Thanksgiving sale” madness, or in fantasy football terms, the trade deadline in your league, the smart thing to do would be to get your playoff shopping done early. That way you don’t have to go through the madness of competing with other owners, and you guarantee that you will be buying when every player is available, rather than waiting until those last place teams close up shop for the year. While your team is currently looking good, and you feel your chances of making the playoffs are strong, a lot can happen in the seven weeks before week 15 arrives. Therefore, the goal should be to go after players who can help you now, and help you in week 15 and 16. Luckily for you, I’ve got that list of players. Quarterbacks Peyton Manning – He may be struggling now, but with a week 15 game against Detroit, Manning is a lock to get you to the finals in your league. He then has Jacksonville in week 16, the ninth worst defense against fantasy quarterbacks. Manning struggled against the Jaguars earlier this season, but here’s a little bit of information on Manning and Jacksonville: In the last five years, Manning has averaged 207 passing yards per game in his first meeting against Jacksonville, with six touchdowns and four interceptions. In his second meeting he has averaged 328 yards per game, with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. Simply put, he always rebounds the second time around. Aaron Rodgers – Early AccuScore projections have Rodgers as the number two ranked fantasy quarterback in both week 15 and 16. That may be due to his matchups against Jacksonville and Chicago, who sport the 23rd and 30th ranked passing defenses respectively. If your league has three playoff weeks, he’s even better, with a week 14 game against the Texans, who are the third worst team against fantasy quarterbacks. Drew Brees – His week 16 game against the Lions is going to win championships, especially since AccuScore simulations have him scoring no less than 15 points from now until the end of the season. He gets Chicago in week 15, which has the 30th ranked passing defense. Trent Edwards – A not-so-obvious name, Edwards has two great matchups during the fantasy playoffs, playing the Jets in week 15, owners of the 24th ranked passing defense in the league, and the Broncos in week 16, and no explanation is really needed for their defense. Edwards also has a favorable schedule down the stretch, with another game against the Jets, two against the Dolphins, Cleveland, San Francisco, and Kansas City. Running Backs Steven Jackson – AccuScore simulations have him ranked first overall for running backs in weeks 15 and 16. That might be due to his matchups against the Seahawks and 49ers in those weeks. Jackson won’t come cheap after his 36 point outburst against the Cowboys, but he’s still worth first round talent, and has a fairly easy schedule down the stretch. Chris Johnson – Johnson has a tough matchup in week 16 against the Steelers, but week 15 against Houston should be enough to get you to the finals. He also will help get you to the playoffs, with games against Indianapolis, Green Bay, the Jets, Detroit, and Cleveland. Ronnie Brown – Brown comes with an injury risk, but if he manages to stay healthy he has San Francisco in week 15, and Kansas City in week 16. AccuScore simulations rank him as the number two running back in week 15, and the number five running back in week 16. There’s also some good matchups down the stretch, like St. Louis, Denver, and Seattle. Maurice Jones-Drew – He’s had two good weeks, including breaking out for 27 points in week six against Denver. His remaining schedule looks great, with Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Houston. Throw in Green Bay in week 15, and a Colts defense that he always scores on in week 16, and he could very easily lead you to a championship. Wide Receivers Marques Colston – For the same reasons I’m taking Drew Brees, I’m also taking Colston. The Bears, his week 15 opponent, allow an average of 21 fantasy points to wide receivers. He’s got the Lions in week 16, which should be a great matchup. I expect him to be 100 percent by the time the playoffs start, and he has some good matchups leading up to that point, like the Chiefs, Falcons twice, and the Chargers this weekend. Steve Smith – He’s the fifth best receiver in AccuScore simulations for weeks 15 and 16. In week 15 he plays the Broncos, and in week 16 he plays a Giants defense that has allowed 20 points per game to fantasy wide receivers. He also has favorable matchups against Oakland, Detroit, Atlanta, and Arizona this weekend. Torry Holt – Holt is a buy low option right now, as he has only reached double digit points once this year, and has combined for 17 points in his last four games. His schedule in the playoffs is Seattle in week 15, with the 29th worst passing defense, and San Francisco in week 16, allowing 20 points per game to wide receivers. He also has favorable matchups against Arizona twice, the Jets, the 49ers, the Bears, and the Dolphins. Bernard Berrian – Berrian’s value is high right now, after breaking out for double digit points the last three games. Chances are people will want to sell high, especially with a bye week this week. I’d buy him, as his schedule down the stretch doesn’t suggest a change. He plays Houston, Detroit, Chicago, and Jacksonville leading up to the playoffs. In week 15 he plays the Cardinals, and in week 16 he plays the Falcons, both of which average 21 fantasy points allowed per game against wide receivers. Tight Ends Tony Gonzalez – Despite the drama going on in Kansas City, and despite the lack of a reliable quarterback, Gonzalez has two great matchups in the playoffs. He gets San Diego in week 15, the worst team by far against fantasy tight ends, allowing 70 yards per game and five touchdowns. In week 16 he gets the Dolphins, who have the 27th ranked passing defense. Greg Olsen – Olsen has been hot lately with 16 catches for 227 yards and two touchdowns in the last four weeks. He’s on a bye this week, which either means he’s found his way to your waiver wire, or he will come very cheap. Down the stretch he has Detroit, Green Bay, and St. Louis. In week 15 he has Green Bay, the fourth worst team against fantasy tight ends this year. In week 16 he has New Orleans, with the 21st ranked passing defense. Deals of the Week I was busy this past week, making two deals. In one league I was uncomfortable with my duo of Brett Favre and Derek Anderson at quarterback, and had some depth at running back with Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook, and Steven Jackson, who I bought low on earlier in the year. I was also able to pick up Joseph Addai recently at a discount price, which made Jackson expendable. I dealt Jackson and Brett Favre for Aaron Rodgers and Heath Miller, giving me a great quarterback for my playoff bound team, and a tight end upgrade over Robert Royal this week. In another league I had an excess of running backs, with Brandon Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Eddie Royal, and Lance Moore at wide receiver. We start three receivers, and since I’m fine with Marion Barber and Chris Johnson as my starters at running back, I dealt Brandon Jacobs straight up for Marques Colston. Once again, my team is in first place, and my combination of Barber, Johnson, Marshall, Colston, and Edwards will look deadly in the playoffs. Trackback(0)
Comments (4)
twilliams
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The guy was interested in Jackson. While I like Jackson for the playoff run, I would rather have Rodgers and either Slaton or Addai, over Favre and Jackson. |
Bob L
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Tim, In your above column, you said SJAX was a great player to have for the playoff run. Then you go and trade him along with Favre for Rodgers and Heath Miller??? Was this first offer to your trade partner? I would have thought the deal could have got done with either Slaton or Addai instead of SJAX. |
John-SCI
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Hi Tim, I am the commissioner of a long standing pool. At this time of year there are always GMs who are ready to sell all their players to get inexpensive keepers (we have a salary based keeper league) for the following year. As a result we have agreed that I would evaluate trades and veto the ones that are too lopsided to avoid "stacking" one team. A trade came through yesterday that I am thinking of reversing, but I wanted a second opinion...since I value yours so highly here it is: Annual Salary Cap $100 Seller gets Tim Hightower $5, Selvin Young $1 and Ted Ginn $2.5 Buyer gets Michael Turner $25.5, Chris Brown (HOU)$.5 and Sidney Rice $1 To me, it does seem as though there is enough future value for the current value of Turner and the loss of future value in Sidney Rice...I know Chris Brown is a long shot to play next year because of injury unless you haver heard otherwise. You thoughts? Thanks, John - Commissioner and GM of the Space Clown Invasion |
JWo
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Hi again, No luck in getting S-Jax. What about this possibility? A guy in my league was looking to deal Plaxico Burress and Darren McFadden. I was thinking about offering DeSean Jackson or Calvin Johnson and Fred Taylor for them. Even though the individual gets punt return yards in our league, I think DeSean's value is going to go down. He might have some good name value though. Should I offer him or Calvin Johnson? What about McFadden? Is he going to take on more of a role for the Raiders in the upcoming weeks that would be worth taking him on? Taylor is more of a bench player for me but has some value due to Jacksonville's schedule. Should I offer someone else from my RB pool. I used the compare player tools and Taylor is projected as more in the upcoming weeks so I don't know if I should keep him. Maybe I should just try a Jackson for Burress straight-up trade. My lineup: QB: Rivers, Garcia RB: Portis, Graham, Sproles, Rhodes, Taylor WR: Colston, DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, D. Mason, Santonio Holmes His lineup: QB: Edwards, Romo, B. Johnson RB: Lynch, Sammy Morris (OUT), Julius Jones, McFadden WR: Burress, Roddy White, Antonio Bryant, Eddie Royal |
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