AccuScore
| NFL Forecast Capsules |
 Stephen Oh
AccuScore Analyst
NFL WEEK 7 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ BUFFALO BILLS Before their bye week, Buffalo struggled against the prolific Arizona passing offense. The Chargers passing game was dynamic vs the Patriots and they will look to have success against the Bills. Philip Rivers has a 39 percent chance of having at least 2 touchdown passes and the AccuScore Custom Game Simulator gives the Chargers the 67 percent winning advantage in these cases. However, there is a 52 percent chance that the Bills will be able to pick off Philip Rivers at least once and Buffalo wins 52 percent of these simulations. The game is coming down to turnover margin. Marshawn Lynch and LT are both forecasted for 85+ rushing yards with a 70 percent chance of scoring at least one touchdown. MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS This should be a physically bruising contest of the week. Chicago is winning by 3 points on average as kicker Robbie Gould is nailing 85 percent of his FGAs in simulations. Rookie Matt Forte is not expected to have a good game against the top notch Vikings rush defense. Forte is averaging 2.2 ypc and has just a 26 percent chance of rushing for 60+ yards. Adrian Peterson has a 43 percent chance of rushing for 100+ yards, but he also has a 25 percent chance of having a costly fumble. If Devin Hester continues to emerge as a big play receiver and has 75 or more receiving yards with 1 TD the Bears have a 67 percent chance of winning. PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS If Willie Parker is healthy he should have a solid game with a 50 percent chance of having at least 75 rushing yards. He and Mewelde Moore are averaging around 120 rushing yards combined which dwarfs the duo of Chris Perry and Cedric Benson, who combine for 60 rushing yards. With a poor running game the Bengals put too much pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick, filling in for injured Carson Palmer. The AccuScore Custom Game Simulator gives Fitzpatrick a 41 percent chance of throwing multiple interceptions and the Bengals win just 7 percent of these simulations. Poor teams like the Rams and Browns have managed impressive wins in recent weeks, but the stats are not with the Bengals. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS AccuScore expects both offenses to have good games and there is a 45 percent chance that this game goes over 50 total points. The Colts defense was great against the rush oriented Ravens, but they have to still prove they can contain good passing teams like the Packers. If Aaron Rodgers has no more than 1 interception then the Packers have a 62 percent chance of winning. The defensive key for the Colts is Dwight Freeney wreaking havoc on Aaron Rodgers. The Colts sack Rodgers 3 or more times in 44 percent of simulations and the Custom Game Simulator gives the Colts a 55 percent chance of winning if they can sack Rodgers 3+ times. Rodgers has been sacked an average of 3 times his past 4 games. TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Brodie Croyle is expected to start and has been described as 'healthy but rusty'. That does not sound good as he has a simulation passer rating of under 65 against the tough Titans defense. The Custom Game Simulator gives Croyle a 51 percent chance of throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. The Chiefs win just 17 percent of these simulations. Larry Johnson has just a 35 percent chance of rushing for over 85 yards while Chris Johnson has a 45 percent chance of 85+ yards. Chris Johnson is doing this in 6 fewer carries per simulation. Kerry Collins is managing the game well and even though he is only averaging 163 passing yards per sim, he is averaging more touchdowns than interceptions. NEW YORK JETS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS Oakland has spent a lot of money and high draft picks on their secondary, but they were demolished by Drew Brees last week. Brett Favrre is completing 65 percent of his passes with a 39 percent chance of having 2+ passing touchdowns. However, Favre does keep opponents in the game with interceptions. The AccuScore Custom Game Simulator gives Favre a 63 percent chance of throwing at least 1 interception and the Raiders win 51 percent of these simulations. There is a 47 percent chance that Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden both have at least 50 rushing yards and they can give the Raiders a 60 percent chance of winning if they both play well. DALLAS COWBOYS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS With Tony Romo and Felix Jones healthy they Cowboys were winning by an average of 12 points per simulation. Now they are winning by 7 points per sim and their winning percentage dropped from 80 percent to just 68 percent. Marion Barber is carrying the load and has a 61 percent chance of rushing for 100+ yards. However, if Barber is held under 100 the Cowboys are upset by 2 points per simulation. Brad Johnson is performing well with an 87 passer rating and a nearly 2 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio. However, if St Louis can sack the 40 year old Johnson 4 or more times the Rams win 51 percent of simulations according to the Custom Game Simulator. BALTIMORE RAVENS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS The Ravens pass defense should be much better against the Dolphins than they were against the Colts because Chad Pennington cannot pass downfield with accuracy like Peyton Manning can. However, Pennington is very accurate and the combo of accurate short passes and a good pair of running backs should help Miami muster 20 points at home. The Ravens are holding Brown and Williams to 3.5 ypc, but there is 32 percent chance that Brown has 75 rushing yards and Williams 25+. The Custom Game Simulator gives the Dolphins an 86 percent chance of winning if they can be this effective. Joe Flacco needs to avoid turnovers. If he has no interceptions the game is a virtual tie. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS The Giants pass rush had no success against the Browns. They are forecasted to bounce back this week with a 67 percent chance of getting at least 3 sacks. The Custom Game Simulator gives the Giants an 86 percent chance of winning if they have 3+ sacks. Look for the Giants offense to start and end the game running the ball well. Brandon Jacobs has a 48 percent chance of rushing for 100+ yards with 1+ touchdowns. Frank Gore only has a 20 percent chance of achieving these levels. However, if he does do this, the 49ers have a 45 percent chance of pulling off the big upset. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Assuming Jeff Garcia has earned back the starting job the Bucs have a big 80 percent edge over Seattle, who will start Seneca Wallace or Charlie Frye. Garcia has a 56 percent chance of throwing no interceptions and the Bucs win 85 percent of these simulations. If Seattle can actually throw no interceptions and Garcia has at least 1 Seattle narrows the gap to just 1 point. The Custom Game Simulator gives Seattle a 46 percent chance of winning in this situation, but it only happens 6 percent of the time. Julius Jones and Maurice Morris are combining for just 52 rushing yards per sim on 3.1 ypc while Tampa Bay RBs Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn average 140+ yards and 1.2 rushing touchdowns. CLEVELAND BROWNS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS Washington was the heaviest favorite of Week 6 to lose and Cleveland was the biggest underdog to win in Week 6. AccuScore expects things to get back to 'normal' with Washington winning 70 percent of simulations. Clinton Portis is averaging 114 rushing yards on 5.2 ypc. He has a 53 percent chance of having 125+ rushing yards. Derek Anderson rediscovered some of his 2007 magic and if he has 2+ touchdown passes the Browns have a 42 percent chance of winning. If Jamal Lewis can add at least 75 rushing yards the Browns are favored by 3 points according to the AccuScore Custom Game Simulator. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS This is a crucial NFC South match-up which Carolina is favored to win in a close game. Jake Delhomme actually has the same chance of having 2 or more touchdown passes as Drew Brees (48 percent). If both have 2+ touchdown passes the Panthers still have the edge because of their superior running game. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister are only averaging 3.1 ypc while DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart average 5 ypc. The Custom Game Simulator gives the Panthers a 38 percent chance of having both RBs rush for 50 or more yards and Carolina wins 79 percent of these simulations by an average of 9 points. DETROIT LIONS @ HOUSTON TEXANS If Jon Kitna is healthy and plays this week he actually helps the Lions win nearly 30 percent of the time. The Lions win just 20 percent of sims where Kitna is injured according to the Custom Game Simulator. Houston is expected to get their second straight win thanks to a solid running game. If Steve Slaton has 75+ yards and Ahman Green contributes at least 25 yards the Texans have an 85 percent chance of winning. Andre Johnson outshines Calvin Johnson. Andre Johnson has a 37 percent chance of having 100+ receiving yards while Calvin Johnson only has a 19 percent chance. With Dan Orlovsky starting and defenses focused on stopping Calvin Johnson now that Roy Williams is traded, the Detroit offense could struggle. DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS The Broncos passing game will look to duplicate the success San Diego had against the Patriots with Jay Cutler having a 40 percent chance of passing for at least 250 yards. Somewhat surprisingly, Matt Cassell has virtually the same chance of having 250+ yards as the Denver defense has struggled this season. The running offenses are putting up very similar numbers as well. Both offenses have a 25 percent chance of amassing 400+ total yards of offense. The game is coming down to turnovers and whoever has the advantage in turnover margin will likely win.
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