BASELINE: GREEN BAY 72% SEATTLE 28%  |  FORECASTED SCORE: 25-17

Seattle visits Green Bay in the first game of the Divisional weekend.  AccuScore’s baseline simulations have the Packers winning over 70% of the time by at least a touchdown behind the strong play of quarterback Brett Favre.  Favre is forecasted to outplay his counterpart, Matt Hasselbeck, throwing for 240 yards and 1.6 touchdowns adding up to a rating of over 90.  Hasselbeck is throwing for 225 yards and 1.2 touchdowns for a rating of a shade over 80.  Favre is averaging a shade more turnovers (combined lost fumbles and interceptions) than Hasselbeck, but that is mitigated by him throwing for more scores.  In simulation wins Favre is averaging two touchdown passes, and less than one interception.  In simulation losses however the gunslinger is throwing just as many interceptions as scores.

With the game being played at Lambeau Field, weather could play a key factor in the outcome of this game.  Both teams like to throw, but poor conditions could force both to run the ball much more than in a typical game.  This would exploit the advantage Green Bay has with Ryan Grant running the ball over Seattle and Shaun Alexander.  Grant is projected for over 100 yards rushing and one touchdown while Alexander and his backup, Maurice Morris, are combining for under 90 yards on just 3.5 yards per carry.

Brett Favre Cannot Regress
In 2005 and 2006 Brett Favre threw 38 touchdown passes and 47 interceptions.  He lost 12 fumbles over that 32 game period for an average of 0.38 per contest.  This year he has been much more secure with the ball cutting his interception and lost fumble rates in half.  AccuScore ran simulations with Brett Favre regressing and turning the ball over (interceptions, lost fumbles) as he had in the two years prior to this season.  The Packers would still favored at home, but they win just 58% of simulations, a drop of 14 percentage points.

Matt Hasselbeck Needs to Be Superman
Shaun Alexander’s decline from his 2005 MVP form has been well documented.  It appears that, because of Alexander’s poor play, Seattle needs a spectacular performance from Hasselbeck in order to pull off the big upset.  But just how good does the quarterback need to be?  AccuScore altered Hasselbeck’s forecasted performance in order for Seattle to become the favorite winning 52% of simulations.

If Hasselbeck were to come through with a Superman performance and lead the Seahawks to favored status he would need to throw for 270 yards and complete nearly 70% of his throws.  He would also throw for one more touchdown on average compared to the baseline simulations while also throwing fewer interceptions.

Game Were in Seattle
AccuScore re-ran this game as if it were a home game for the Seahawks.  If the game were played at Qwest Field instead of Lambeau, Seattle would be a very slight favorite winning 50.3% of simulations.  The average score would also be incredibly close with just 0.2 points separating the two teams.