Jonathan Lee - AccuScore Analyst

BASELINE: NEW ENGLAND 82% JACKSONVILLE 18%  |  FORECASTED SCORE: 30-18

The Jaguars should be pleased that they intercepted Ben Roethlisberger three times and forced a fumble on the final Pittsburgh possession.  They needed withstand well over 300 yards passing by Big Ben which almost brought the Steelers all the way back from an 18 point deficit.  With Roethlisberger throwing all over them (interceptions not withstanding) the Jaguars should be worried about now facing the league’s best quarterback in Tom Brady.  Brady is forecasted to throw for 325 yards and nearly 3 touchdowns per simulation while not turning the ball over at a high rate (0.9 interceptions).  Wide receiver Randy Moss should continue to make Brady look good with over 90 yards receiving and at least one catch for a score.  A big key to this game will be third down conversion rate, which will likely give the Patriots a big advantage.  They are converting better than 50% of the time compared to just 35% for Jacksonville.

The Jags of course, rely on the one-two punch of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to move the chains on the ground.  Their running ability combined with quarterback David Garrard’s uncanny ability to make the right play and limit mistakes (just four interceptions on the year) has been a formula for success.  Jacksonville is forecasted to run well against New England with Taylor and Jones-Drew averaging nearly 4.5 yards per carry, and topping 90 yards combined.  Garrard is also having a solid game with 1.2 touchdowns and just 0.7 interceptions for a quarterback rating of better than 85.  For Jacksonville to win however, it will need to score points to keep pace with the high-powered offense of New England so Garrard will have to be more than just solid.  He will need to continue to avoid turnovers as he has all year and make more big plays in the passing game which will be difficult without a true big play receiver.

The Value of David Garrard’s Legs
Garrard’s long run on 4th and 2 against Pittsburgh was HUGE to say the least. and fueled Jacksonville’s win in Pittsburgh.  That 32 yard scamper late in the fourth quarter set up Josh Scobee’s eventual game-winning 25-yard field goal.  Garrard’s toughness and ability to scramble was a significant factor in Jack Del Rio naming the East Carolina alum the starter and cutting Byron Leftwich.  AccuScore looked at what would happen if Garrard were an immobile quarterback in the mold of Leftwich in order to gauge the true “value” of his legs.  The Jaguars’ chances for an upset in this scenario would decline by four percentage points.   Their third-down conversion rate would drop while Garrard’s sacks would increase significantly.  Clearly Garrard’s ability to move and escape pressure plays a big role for Jacksonville.

GARRARD	WIN%	3RD	RUSH	YD	SACK
Baseline	18%	35%	4.4	20.2	2.9
Scenario	14%	33%	0.8	1.1	3.5

Should Patriots Pass, Pass, Pass?
The Jaguars defense is highly regarded, but it showed some vulnerability allowing big passing plays to Pittsburgh both times the two teams played.  New England broke nearly all the major passing records this season, and the weather should not be a factor on Saturday.  In baseline simulations the Patriots are passing the ball about 56% of the time.  AccuScore tinkered to increase this ratio to 66% to see if the increased passing would be beneficial for the Patriots.

TOM BRADY	WIN%	CMP	ATT	%	YD	TD	INT
Baseline	82%	22.6	34.2	66.1%	325	2.6	0.9
Scenario	85%	26.1	40.0	65.3%	364	3.1	1.0

The increased passing would help New England win an even higher percentage of simulations.  Brady’s numbers would improve nearly across the board with just a very small decline in completion percentage.  The key factor here is that Brady throws very few interceptions making his extra throws more valuable than for other quarterbacks.

How Can Jacksonville Shock the World?
David Garrard may think Jacksonville is a team of destiny, but he and the rest of the Jaguars may be the only people who agree.  New England has not gotten to 16-0 by accident; it is still a huge favorite to win on Saturday.  For Jacksonville to pull off the upset, it will need A LOT of things to go right.  Once bounce here or there probably won’t be enough.  AccuScore looked at just the simulations that Jacksonville won and compared that to Jacksonville’s simulation losses and found some key trends:

• Garrard averages 1.7 passing touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions in wins against a ratio of 1.1 to 0.8 in losses
• Taylor and Jones-Drew average 120 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 yards per carry in wins versus just 83 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on just 4.3 yards per carry in losses
• Brady averages 2.8 touchdown passes when the Patriots win, and just 1.8 touchdowns in Jaguars upset victories

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