Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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BASELINE: INDIANAPOLIS 70% SAN DIEGO 30%  |  FORECASTED SCORE: 28-21

Current simulations include Antonio Gates, the Chargers All-Pro tight end, but he is questionable with a foot injury.  If all his weapons are ready to go San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is completing over 60 percent of his passes with 1.3 touchdowns passing per simulation.  He is also averaging nearly 1.5 turnovers (combined interceptions and lost fumbles) which could prove costly.  Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is forecated for nearly 300 yards with Reggie Wayne averaging nearly 100 yards receiving and Marvin Harrison (presumably ready to play) contributing 50 yards in limited action.  LaDainian Tomlinson is running better indoors in Indy than he did at home in the rain, and he is averaging 105 yards per simulation.  While those numbers are good, the Chargers may need a bigger day from LT along the lines of 130+ yards and 6 yards per carry.  With Bob Sanders filling the running lanes, the Colts should be able to contain Tomlinson from having a monster day, and they have a 70 percent chance of winning the game.

Can San Diego Ride LT to Victory?
In most cases giving Tomlinson more touches is the smartest thing San Diego can do.  He is of course considered the best running back in the NFL.  However, Sanders was recently named the Defensive Player of the Year not only because he is excellent in pass coverage, but because he has a freakish ability to stuff runs and makes tackles in the backfield.  When AccuScore increased Tomlinson’s touches in this scenario it allowed the back to put up big numbers rushing, but the Chargers winning percentage actually declined slightly (down from 30% to 28%).

TOMLINSIN	WIN%	RUSH	YD	TD	REC	YD	TD
Baseline	30%	21	105	0.8	3.7	30	0.2
Scenario	28%	25	125	1.0	4.6	39	0.2

Is Gates Healthy?
The Chargers certainly better hope their All-Pro tight end is ready to play.  Gates was injured on an irrelevant pass play that went for a 1-yard loss in the second quarter against the Titans, but it may cost the Chargers big time this week.  Even though both wide receivers Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson had great games against Tennessee, in order for the Chargers to upset the Colts on the road they will need Gates.  Philip Rivers’ average stat line may not look radically different with or without Gates, the team’s winning percentage drops a full six percentage points without the tight end in the lineup.  Gates only had three catches for 26 yards and no scores in the Week 10 match-up with the Colt.  He is averaging just four catches for 50 yards in baseline simulations, but it’s an important 50 yards.  His mere presence opens up space for the other receivers, and for Tomlinson with all the attention he requires in the middle of the field.

RIVERS	WIN%	CMP	ATT	%	YD	TD	INT
Baseline	30%	19.5	31.9	61.1%	234	1.3	1.1
Scenario	24%	18.4	30.9	59.5%	220	1.2	1.2

Can San Diego Pull Off the Upset?
The reason why San Diego is a heavy underdog is because in order to win they need Philip Rivers to play better than Peyton Manning.  That is not an impossibility given Rivers was a Pro Bowler last year and Manning did throw six interceptions in Week 10, but it certainly is not something that seems likely.  Manning is unquestionably one of the two best quarterbacks in the league, and possibly one of the best ever.  Many question whether or not Rivers has improved at all from last season.  Here is a look at how the quarterbacks perform depending on which team wins in simulations:

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