| NFL Deviants |
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AccuScore went 9-4 predicting game winners in week seven of the NFL season on Sunday for the seventh winning week in a row. That brings the overall record to 67-34 on the season for straight game winners. St. Louis, Baltimore, Buffalo and Oakland were the four teams that went against AccuScore’s forecasts in week seven. To find out how these teams overcame the odds that were stacked against them in AccuScore simulations, let’s take a look at this week’s statistical deviants. Rams pull off another upset AccuScore had the Cowboys winning 71.8 percent of simulations against the Rams, winning by an average score of 26-18. For the second week in a row, St. Louis pulled off a big upset over an NFC East opponent, winning 34-14 thanks to a huge effort by Steven Jackson and the Rams offense. Jackson led the offense by putting up an incredible 160 yards and three touchdowns. In custom AccuScore simulations, the Rams won 87.2 percent of the time with Jackson putting up that type of effort. Marc Bulger added to that with 173 passing yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. St. Louis increased their chances of winning by nine percentage points in custom AccuScore simulations when Bulger put up this type of performance. It wasn’t just the offense that had the success. The defense sacked Brad Johnson three times, forcing three interceptions. As I stated in the Back Up Game Plan last week, Dallas saw their chances of winning drop considerably when Brad Johnson was sacked at least three times. The Rams were winning 45.5 percent of simulations when this occurred, and Johnson’s interceptions saw a 25 percent increase. Combine the amazing effort by Jackson, the flawless play by Bulger, and the pressure the Rams put on the Dallas passing game, and it is clear to see why the Rams dominated the Cowboys this weekend. Baltimore’s run defense too strong AccuScore had Miami winning 66.8 percent of simulations at home against the Ravens, but Baltimore pulled off a dominating 27-13 victory over the Dolphins on Sunday. The main advantage the Ravens had was a run defense that managed to finally stop Ronnie Brown. AccuScore simulations had Brown running for 76 yards on 19 carries, with Ricky Williams adding 41 yards on 15 carries, and the two running backs combining for a touchdown. The Ravens held the two running backs to a total of 43 yards on 17 carries and no touchdowns. In custom AccuScore simulations, the Ravens were winning 81 percent of the time by an average score of 22-12 when holding Brown and Williams to that type of performance. The running game was in Baltimore’s favor all around on Sunday. Willis McGahee was forecasted to run for just 51 yards on 16 carries, with LeRon McClain adding an additional 21 yards. McGahee ran for 105 yards on 19 carries, adding a touchdown, while McClain added 17 yards. Baltimore was winning 71.8 percent of custom AccuScore simulations when McGahee ran for 105 yards and a touchdown like he did on Sunday. The Dolphins had two nice wins against the Patriots and Chargers, but couldn’t pull off the same success against a strong running defense like the Ravens. Bills shut down Tomlinson San Diego was winning 56.8 percent of AccuScore simulations over the Bills, thanks in part to LaDainian Tomlinson being forecasted for 104 total yards and a touchdown. On Sunday, Buffalo shut down Tomlinson as best as anyone can shut Tomlinson down, holding the star running back to 67 total yards, 41 of those on the ground. In custom AccuScore simulations when Buffalo held Tomlinson to this type of performance, the Bills were winning 76.6 percent of the time, by an average score of 24-15, which is very similar to the 23-14 outcome on Sunday. Trent Edwards also added to the success of the Bills, completing 25 of his 30 passes, and throwing for 261 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. The Bills were winning 51 percent of custom AccuScore simulations with this type of performance from Edwards. Buffalo moves to 5-1 with the victory, taking a commanding lead in the AFC East division. The more important thing about this victory is the strength of the opponent. The Bills had wins over St. Louis, Oakland, and struggling Jacksonville and Seattle teams, with their only loss coming against the Cardinals. While the Chargers haven’t been their dominant selves this season, a victory over San Diego for the Bills shows that this team is a legit playoff contender. Oakland wins in overtime AccuScore had the Jets and the Raiders playing a very close game, with New York winning 55.6 percent of simulations by an average score of 20-18. The game was indeed close, but the Raiders were the ones with the edge on Sunday, winning 16-13 in overtime. New York saw Thomas Jones run for 159 yards, despite being projected for 64 yards by AccuScore simulations. That effort was off-set by Brett Favre’s poor performance that saw him throw for 197 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions, despite being forecasted for 222 yards, a touchdown and an interception. In custom AccuScore simulations the Raiders were winning 80.7 percent of simulations when Favre put up the performance we saw on Sunday. The Jets had a big advantage when Jones ran for 159 yards in simulations, but that was offset by Favre’s performance, which still gave the Raiders a slight advantage in custom simulations. That slight advantage proved to be enough, as Oakland came close to winning in regulation before a game tying field goal by Jay Feely, and pulled off the win with a field goal of their own in overtime. Trackback(0)
Comments (6)
Johnnyrip
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What's your prediction on the MNF game? |
twilliams
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Simply that Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards finally came alive, and broke out of their funk from the first five weeks. |
Peter Jones
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And what was the excuse for the trumping Cleveland gave the NYG??? |
twilliams
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Before the game against Jacksonville the only thing we have to base Buffalo's run defense on is the following: 1. They allowed 4.0 yards per carry against Seattle in week 1. 2. They ranked 25th in run defense in 2007, 28th in 2006, and 31st in 2005. It's not like they only had one bad season. They've had a horrible run defense the past few seasons. Buffalo added Marcus Stroud to their defensive line, but it would be hard to argue that they are considerably better than the team which ranked 25th last year. |
LeeW
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I will admit that you can take into account last years rankings, but quoting you above, "With both offensive guards out for the season, and the Jaguars struggling against last year’s 25th ranked run defense, this could end up being a long season for Jacksonville." That is ridiculous. The main thing about this season, is this season. Not last season. |
Maggie May
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I ALMOST LOST THE OFFICE POOL BECAUSE OF THE CHARGERS I WOULD HAVE WON iT ALL BUT NOW IT'S DOWN TO FOUR GUYS TYING it up and splitting the pot SO NEXT WEEK I WILL NOT BE TAKING THEM THAT'S FOR DOGGONE SURE.  |
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