NFL Deviants Week Eight

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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AccuScore went 8-5 predicting game winners in week eight of the NFL season on Sunday for the eighth winning week in a row. That brings the overall record to 76-39 on the season for straight game winners. New Orleans, Seattle, Miami, Cleveland, and the New York Giants were the five teams that went against AccuScore’s forecasts in week eight. To find out how these teams overcame the odds that were stacked against them in AccuScore simulations, let’s take a look at this week’s statistical deviants.

Where’s the defense?

San Diego and New Orleans traveled to London for their Sunday game, with AccuScore projecting San Diego to win in 58.2 percent of simulations. Both offenses clearly showed up for the game, with the final score being 37-32 in favor of New Orleans. New Orleans was fortunate to have the only defense show up, which proved to be the difference.

The Chargers didn’t force a turnover, or record a sack the entire game. New Orleans had no sacks, but forced two turnovers against San Diego, which is crucial in a game decided by five points. In custom AccuScore simulations where the Chargers went without a sack and a turnover, the Saints won 80 percent of the time, by a score of 35-23. In custom simulations where the Saints recorded two turnovers, New Orleans won 60.9 percent of the time by an average score of 28-25.

Both offenses heavily exceeded their AccuScore projections, with the quarterbacks combining for 680 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. The difference came down to which defense could come up with a big play, and that defense happened to be the Saints, with two turnovers, proving to be a key in a game that was decided by just five points.

Not a good start for the 49ers

The 49ers got off to a horrible start under new head coach Mike Singletary, losing their first game to the Seattle Seahawks by a score of 34-13. AccuScore simulations had San Francisco winning 56.4 percent of simulations by an average score of 21-19. Whether it was the J.T. O’Sullivan benching, or the Vernon Davis incident, the 49ers showed that they just didn’t have it yesterday.

O’Sullivan was projected to throw for 176 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. O’Sullivan completed 13 of his 21 passes for 131 yards, no touchdowns, one interceptions, and two fumbles, one of those lost, before being benched for Shaun Hill. I pointed out in the Back Up Game Plan last week that Shaun Hill improves the 49ers chances against Seattle by 24 percentage points. Hill came in for the second half and completed 15 of 23 passes for 173 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions.

However, it wasn’t just poor play by the 49ers offense. The defense was torched by Seneca Wallace and Leonard Weaver. Wallace was forecasted to throw for 210 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. He ended up throwing for 222 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, with Weaver catching four passes for 116 yards and both touchdowns. In custom AccuScore simulations when Wallace put up that type of performance, Seattle won 76.1 percent of the time by an average score of 28-19.

Miami edges out Buffalo

Despite the 5-1 record heading in to the game, AccuScore had the Buffalo Bills winning just 51.6 percent of simulations against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins ended up pulling out the win, with two field goals and a safety in the fourth quarter, beating Buffalo by a final score of 25-16. The biggest impact for Miami came from the passing game, specifically the combination of Chad Pennington and Ted Ginn Jr.

AccuScore simulations had Pennington passing for 200 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. Pennington ended up throwing for 314 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, with Ginn Jr catching seven passes for 175 yards. Custom AccuScore simulations show that this type of performance by Ginn Jr and Pennington is enough to give the Dolphins the edge, with Miami winning the average simulation by a score of 22-18.

Cleveland pulls a big upset

AccuScore simulations had the Jacksonville Jaguars winning 81 percent of simulations against the Cleveland Browns by an average score of 28-15. Cleveland ended up pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the day, beating Jacksonville 23-17, thanks to another flawless game by Derek Anderson.

Anderson didn’t do anything spectacular to beat Jacksonville, but threw for 246 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. AccuScore simulations had Anderson throwing for 187 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. In custom AccuScore simulations where Anderson put up the performance we saw on Sunday, the Browns improved their chances of winning by 20 percentage points.

Jamal Lewis also played a factor, running for 81 yards on 20 carries with a touchdown. AccuScore simulations had Lewis running for 58 yards on 17 carries with a touchdown in just 30 percent of simulations. The biggest difference was the effort the Cleveland run defense put forth. Maurice-Jones Drew and Fred Taylor were combining for 161 yards and a touchdown on the ground in AccuScore simulations. The duo was held to 53 yards and no touchdowns on Sunday. In custom AccuScore simulations where the Jaguars running backs were held to this type of performance, Cleveland held the edge, winning 58 percent of simulations.

The Cleveland offense once again played a great game, but it was the defense coming up big to provide the biggest difference in this game.

Giants put the pressure on Big Ben

The Steelers were forecasted to win 64.5 percent of simulations against the Giants by an average score of 25-20. Pittsburgh had control most of the game on Sunday, but fell apart late in the fourth quarter due to some key injuries. That includes one to their long snapper, leading to a botched punt that resulted in a game tying safety with seven minutes to go. That was followed by an Eli Manning touchdown pass to Kevin Boss with four minutes to go, which led the Giants to a 21-14 win over the Steelers.

The botched punt snap wasn’t the main reason why the Steelers lost. A big portion of the blame once again has to go to the Steelers offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked five times, and pressured all night, leading to four interceptions. The Giants were forecasted for four sacks and two turnovers, but ended up with five sacks and four turnovers. In custom AccuScore simulations when the Giants put that type of pressure on Roethlisberger, New York won 81 percent of the time.

The Steelers had a great chance to win the game, despite the large amount of turnovers by Roethlisberger. The safety late in the fourth quarter was the turning point in the game. However, without all of those turnovers, the Steelers would have been in a position where a late safety wouldn’t have mattered.

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