| NFC Preseason Forecast |
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If you read the AFC Preview you know I started that analysis anticipating some serious hate mail from Jets Fans. Call me crazy, but I actually don’t anticipate the NFC forecast to generate as much burning hot hatred. I have no doubt that some NFC West fans from Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona will have very strong opinions. I just get the feeling that fans from all 3 cities, however optimistic they are heading into 2007, all understand that their teams are not guaranteed Playoff Spots. Below is the preliminary AccuScore forecast for the NFC. To run these simulations we play the entire season 10,000 times and tabulate the number of times each team makes the Playoffs as a Division Winner or Wildcard. *Forecasts are updated frequently. Check out Season Forecast. CHICAGO SHOULD OVERCOME SUPER BOWL LOSER HANGOVER The Bears won’t flirt with perfection like they did for the first half of 2006 simply because their schedule is tougher. However, they are currently winning 50%+ of simulations in every single game, except for their opening Week in San Diego. They lost Thomas Jones, but if Cedric Benson stays healthy, he and backups Adrian Peterson and rookie Garrett Wolfe should provide the rushing yards the team needs. Adding Devin Hester and rookie Greg Olsen to the offense should also help Rex Grossman be more consistent. Last season, Grossman only felt comfortable with his Top 2 options (Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammed). If they were covered he panicked and made poor decisions (by his own admission). The defense was vulnerable against the run in the 2nd half of 2006. With Lance Briggs signed up and Tommie Harris back from injury the defense should be excellent. With Chicago dominating the NFC North and the NFC East Teams like Dallas and Philly maintaining their high chances of making the Playoffs, the rest of the NFC North (Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit) are near the bottom of the pack making the Playoffs. AccuScore does like Calvin Johnson. Even though my own personal opinion is Jon Kitna could never lead the team to the Playoffs, Randy Moss made an aging Randall Cunningham look like an MVP in his rookie season. Johnson was spectacular playing with the awful Reggie Ball at Georgia Tech. The Lions are forecasted for a big increase in total wins in 2007. In fact they are winning 8+ games in over 40% of simulations. THE SAINTS TAKE CONTROL OF THEIR DIVISION A bad defense is the reason why the team is not favored to win the NFC, but the offense is good enough to get back to the NFC Championship Game. AccuScore give the Saints a 56% chance of winning the NFC South. Carolina is 2nd with 34% chance. The Panthers always seem to alternate between good and bad seasons and if Steve Smith stays healthy, the Panthers have over 54% chance of making the Playoffs (5th best in the NFC). The Falcons are a disaster with the whole Vick thing. AccuScore expects Tampa Bay to be better with Jeff Garcia at QB, but Cadillac Williams does not look capable of being a 300+ carries per year type guy and the defense is still old even as the team replaced Simeon Rice with Gaines Adams. AccuScore gives these teams under 20% chance of making the Playoffs. DALLAS AND PHILLY FIGHT FOR NFC EAST ST LOUIS ARE FAVORED BY STATISTICS San Francisco’s Alex Smith improved by leaps and bounds in 2006, and I know the team nearly had a .500 record, but their stats indicate they weren’t that close to .500. They averaged 18.6 pts per game and allowed 25.8 pts per game. In other words, their offense averaged 3 fewer points than average teams even with a huge year from Frank Gore and a good Kicker in Joe Nedney and the defense allowed 4 more points than average despite having Baltimore’s former defensive coordinator, Mike Nolan, as Head Coach. SF fans should realize that AccuScore is forecasting significant improvement from SF, both offensively and defensively, but this is not translating to more wins. As far as Arizona is concerned, the team has talent, but when you are the lowest ranking team in rushing and allowed the 4th most points on defense you have a long way to go to make the Playoffs. I also think it’s very lame that Matt Leinart is friends with the whole Young Hollywood crowd. I can’t imagine NFL veterans being led by a player who is good friends with Nick Lachey and Paris Hilton. CLOSING WORD Trackback(0)
Comments (7)
Damn Yankee
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I am a Giants fan so take this for what its worth. I am so sick of hearing how bad Eli is and how he is such a huge bust. He's not a clone of Peyton and as soon as people realize that, maybe he'll get some respect. Nobody seems to remember Peyton's first few years in the NFL. In his 4th year he managed a paltry 84.1 QB rating. He was a turnover machine throwing 27 TD's and 23 picks. His rise to prominence was a long and painful one so give Eli a break. If he's only half as good as his brother, than he's head and shoulders above alot of other guys revered as saviors for their teams. Eli can only get better and when that happens, like the guy on the NFL network proclaims, "championship!" |
DocHolliday
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in a couple years it will be St. Louis and Arizona battleing it out for the NFCW title The team that has one single playoff win since 1960? Those Cardinals? Just checking... |
ninerssuck
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To GO 9ERS: I don't think a team that has ALEX SMITH as their quarterback should be criticizing Eli Manning. Smith was ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE last year, he had 2800 yards and a TON of turnovers with like a low 70s passer rating. Smith needs to prove he's better then the average NFL backup before you get any bragging rights. Your offense just got worse this offseason really. The only people who I would even consider remotely good is Davis and Gore. Gore with his broken hand is showing why he had durability concerns already and he's running on borrowed time with TWO surgically repaired knees. Your new receivers aren't good at all. Jackson has led the league three years in the row with dropped passes, you really think Seattle would ship a division rival a good player? LMAO. Lelie is a proven bust. Who'd the niners get on defense that's good besides Clements? Tully Banta Cain? Ooohhh, im shaking. You're a typical homer fan, you think every team in the NFCW is worse then the niners? HAH! Alexander isn't hurt, he made a joke about his foot that was taken seriously, there's nothing wrong with him, the seahawks were ravaged by injury last year. The Rams look to be awesome this year with one of the best offenses in the NFL, from what I've read their draft pick has really impressed and should be a huge factor in their defense this year. They're not getting older either, the Rams are actually the 7th youngest team in the league by average. Thinking about it, the only old guys are Bruce and Pace. The Rams are on their way up in this division and have been "rebuilding" the past few years, they're building something special in St. Louis. I agree about the Cardinals, they'll be worse then you guys this year, they need a better RB, OL and DL to really suceed. But like the Rams, they're really building something good there and in a couple years it will be St. Louis and Arizona battleing it out for the NFCW title with San Fran coming in third and Seatlle in last dealing with true rebuilding mode |
GO 9ERS!!!
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How can you POSSIBLY have teams like the Lions and Giants ahead of the 9ers. The Giants won't do ANYTHING without Tiki. And Eli is highly overrated as a QB. He would be a great backup, which is what he would be for most teams. He makes a LOT of bad decisions still, and he's at the point where he shouldn't be making those kind of mistakes still. And the Lions? LMAO... come on now. We're talking about the Lions. They haven't done anything since Barry Sanders, and they're not going anywhere anytime soon. The Lions are like the Cardinals. They have a few upsets every year, and that's ALL they do. Then you have the Seahawks ahead of them also. Last I checked Alexander is still hurt. The retarded sports casters from last weeks game for the Seachickens were saying that Alexander looks like he's back to his OLD form again. He had all of 4 yards on 2 carries. Then you have the Rams up there too. What do the Rams have. They have a good offense, although they are getting older, and quickly. Their defense is nothing to worry about. Either very old, or very young and a lack of experience. I can see the other teams you have up there being better than the 9ers... but not those 4 teams. And you're basing this off of last years stats. Last I checked the 9ers have 2 new WR's, and 5, MAYBE 6 new starters on defense. |
Luther Calvin
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Thanks for the forecast. I agree that the Chicago Bears will be formidable. With their awesome defense returning and improvements in the passing game for the offense, what's not to like. Berrian and Hester will stretch the opponent's defenses and with Muhammad and Olsen the possession receivers, the field will be opened for Benson's power running game. With QB Grossman's maturation and cutting down on mistakes the Bears are set for a super season. |
DocHolliday.
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Arizona recievers put up amazing stats because Arizona is usually behind on the score board and has to throw the ball to catch up. Not sure how well the Cards wide outs would fare on a better team. {see David Boston} |
superbowlravens
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I don't think the preseason means anything to veterans, but I do think it counts for rookies and 2nd year players. Did you see Matt Leinart's soft, inaccurate passes vs oakland tonight? I think Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are total beasts, but they may have to rip soft, pretty boy leinart a new you know what this season. The Cardinals running game didn't look improved and the starting defense gave up 21 pts to the Oakland Raiders of all teams. I think Arizona is definitely going to tank another season. |
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