How Can the Giants Upset the Packers

Like the AFC Championship Game, there are a few keys to the game that are quite obvious to anyone watching.

Who Will Have 2 TD Passes and No More than 1 INT?

Looking at the simulation averages for each team when they win or lose, it's very clear that Eli Manning needs to outplay another QB who is considered better than he is. First it was beating Jeff Garcia, then Tony Romo and now it's Brett Favre. The table below shows each QB in simulation wins and losses. The TD and INT numbers are virtually the same for the QB that wins or loses the game.

The winning QB averages 1.7 TDs and INTs are virtually the same for the winning QB. The winning QB has a nearly 2:1 Pass TD to INT ratio while the loser has a 1 to 1 ratio.

Overall, Brett Favre’s simulation passer rating is 89 while Eli Manning’s is 74. If a rating of 90 is considered a very good game, especially in bad weather, then using the PRO Player Analyzer at AccuScore, I see that Eli Manning has a 29% chance of having a Quarterback Rating over 90 this week. Brett Favre may be facing the #1 Rated Giants pass rush, but he still has a 48% chance of having a rating over 90.

Brett Favre’s chances of having a very good game is 19 percentage points higher than Eli Manning’s chances. The Packers’ winning percentage is 29 percentage points higher than the Giants.

So what accounts for the last 10 percentage points?

Who Will Average 5+ YPC for over 100 Yards?
Overall, Ryan Grant is having a great game with 103 yards on 19 carries (5.4 ypc) and an average of 1 TD run per simulation. Brandon Jacobs is good (18 carries, 84 yards, 4.6 ypc) and the combo of him and Ahmad Bradshaw do crank out over 140 yards.

In simulation wins Ahmad Bradshaw averages 6.1 ypc while in simulation losses he averages virtually the same number – 5.9 ypc. The big difference in the Giants running game in wins vs. losses comes back to Brandon Jacobs. In Giants wins, Jacobs averages 2.6 more carries, but a whopping 20.6 more yards and nearly half a yard more per carry.

Green Bay's Ryan Grant also displays this level of difference in wins vs losses. Grant's explosiveness is well-documented and in simulation wins he'll have 5 or 6 runs of 10 or more yards vs just 2 or 3 long runs in simulation losses.

The PRO Player Analyzer indicates that Ryan Grant has a 58% chance of averaging 5 ypc or more while Brandon Jacobs has a 45% chance of averaging 5 or more ypc. The +13 percentage point advantage that Grant has accounts for the 10 percentage point difference remaining from the Favre vs. Manning comparison.

Do the Giants Miss Jeremy Shockey?
It does not look like they do. Without Shockey the Giants TE Kevin Boss and rookie WR Steve Smith have gotten more passes thrown to them. Eli Manning's completion percentage, touchdown rate and first down conversion rate is slightly higher passing to Boss and Smith combined than it was to Shockey. In simulations with Shockey playing the Giants still won 35 percent of simulations confirming that the team can continue to win without their star TE.

Can Giants Pass Rush Disrupt Packers Passing Game?
The Giants are sacking Brett Favre twice per simulation. In simulations AccuScore doubled the number of times the Giants sack Favre. While the Giants winning percentage does improve from 35 percent to 40 percent, the improvement is not as much as one would expect. The reason is, the Packers throw a lot of short slant passes and even if the Giants blitz a ton, Brett Favre can still complete a high percentage of these passes to keep the ball moving.

How Important is Home Field Advantage?
The Giants have lost just 1 road game this year and Eli Manning’s passer rating has been higher on the road than at home for the past 2 seasons. Not surprisingly, home field advantage is not nearly as meaningful in this game as other games. Green Bay easily won their regular season match-up vs the Giants and in a re-match simulation, the Packers win 51% against the improved Giants. The Giants’ winning percentage improves by 14 percentage points. For comparisons sake, the Chargers’ winning percentage improves by nearly 19 percentage points if their game vs New England were at home.

Is Ryan Grant More Valuable Than Brett Favre?
Ryan Grant is forecasted for 100+ yards on over 5 ypc vs the Giants in the NFC Championship Game. In simulations where Ryan Grant is not playing, and Green Bay starts Brandon Jackson with Vernand Morency as a backup, the Packers win 54% of simulations – a decline of 8 percentage points!

Brett Favre is also forecasted for an excellent game – 62% completion percentage, 240 yards, 1.6 TD passes per sim vs. just 0.8 INTs. However, Aaron Rodgers played well in limited action this year. Most of his numbers were generated vs. the Cowboys where Rodgers played well. If (and this is a HUGE if) Aaron Rodgers could play like he did vs the Cowboys he averages 229 yards passing, 1.4 TD passes and 0.8 INTs and the Packers still win 59 percent of simulations (a 6 percentage point decline from when Favre starts). The problem with this analysis is it is difficult to measure the intangible leadership quality that Favre brings, but from a purely statistical standpoint, Ryan Grant is more valuable to the Packers than Brett Favre!