Aaron Feldstein - AccuScore Analyst

Any football fan knows that one loss in college football could mean the season is pretty much over. Although their chances of winning a National Championship are still there, you need help from others in order to fulfill the ultimate goal.

In the world of the NFL, it is not so detrimental. A team can get away with anywhere up to seven losses and still make the post-season. Last year, a 10-6 team won the Super Bowl.

However, if a team losses to a division rival or an opponent they were heavily favored to beat, it could mean the end of any playoff chances. That’s what happened in Week 7 of the NFL. Potential playoff favorites lost to sub-.500 teams while high-powered offenses were held to two touchdowns or less.

As the NFL is nearly to the half-way point, the AccuScore computer has several teams that have revived their playoff hopes, while others have dug their own grave.

AFC

The top powers of the AFC still haven’t changed and don’t look to anytime soon. Pittsburgh showed that no matter who they plug in at what position, they are a force to be dealt with and the Tennessee Titans exhibited they are more than just a defensive powerhouse. But after Week 7, the AFC looks to becoming a little clearer.

New York Jets – How do you go from within striking distance of top divisional percentage to having just under a three percent chance of winning it? Lose to the Oakland Raiders in overtime. The Jets had 418 yards and Thomas Jones ran for 159 of them, yet New York could only put up 13 points against a Raiders team that had given up an average of 27 points per game. A few weeks ago, the Jets seemed like an overwhelming favorite to make the post-season thanks to an offensive outburst against the Cardinals and a favorable schedule. But now, they seem like an afterthought. The Jets have a 13 percent chance of making the post-season, down a whopping 26.2 percent from a week ago.

Buffalo Bills – No one was happier to see a bye week than the Bills were two weeks ago. Buffalo had just been thumped by the Cardinals for its first loss of the season and Trent Edwards was down with a concussion. Fast forward to this weekend as the Bills got back on track and defeated San Diego 23-14. The defense held their opponent to 16 or less points for the fourth time in six games. Edwards played beautifully completing 83 percent of his passes and throwing a touchdown pass for the first time since week four. Buffalo is tops in the division with a 5-1 and have a 76.3 percent chance of taking the AFC East and a 91.2 chance of making the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts – The offense that dominated the Baltimore Ravens two weeks ago was missing on Sunday against a Green Bay team that was in the bottom five of the NFL against the pass. Just when it seemed that everything was fixed for the Colts, something else breaks. In a division that has tough teams like Jacksonville and Tennessee, Indianapolis can’t afford any mistakes, miscues and overall losing to teams they should beat. The Colts are now at .500 and have games against the Titans, Patriots and Steelers coming up. This could be the first time since Tony Dungy became head coach that Indianapolis doesn’t make the playoffs. A 22.5 percent drop in post-season projection from our AccuScore simulation shows that the Colts now only have a 35.2 percent chance of playing in January. That’s eighth in the AFC.

NFC

If someone had said the Arizona Cardinals were going to be the overwhelming favorite to make the post-season in the NFC, most people would say that person was nuts. But as it stands right now, Arizona has an 88.6 percent chance of making the playoffs (15.3 percent better than the second place Giants). Tampa Bay, Carolina and Green Bay reestablished their playoff hopes, but some favorites look like they are losing a grip on their season.

New Orleans Saints – Just when it seemed this team was the next coming of the greatest show on turf, they lay another egg. The first two were last second losses to Minnesota and Denver, but this one could be the biggest egg of them all. Against divisional rival Carolina, the Saints had two turnovers, lost Reggie Bush to injury and were held under ten points for the first time since week 13 of the 2005 season. New Orleans is now below .500, in the cellar of the NFC South and two games behind division leaders Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Saints now only have a 9.7 percent chance of making the post-season.

Dallas Cowboys – I understand that Cowboys mayhem is everywhere in the sports world. What has happened to America’s team? They’ve loss three of their last four, and at the same time seem to have lost the luster that made them Super Bowl favorites. Tony Romo’s status is still up the in air, and playing in a tough division can’t help this team that hasn’t won a playoff game since the Troy Aikman days. The Cowboys have three straight games against tough defenses in Tampa Bay, New York and Washington and could easily be 4-6 after week 11. That’s why for the first time this season Dallas is projected outside the playoff picture with a 43.1 percent chance of making the post-season.

Minnesota Vikings – Here was a team that was the favorite in the NFC North once Favre departed for the Big Apple. Two late wins against New Orleans and Detroit had them tied for the division lead but still projected very low to make the post-season. The Vikings still seemed confident that they could take the NFC North. But Green Bay looks back on track and the Bears just put up 48 points and got five turnovers on the men from Minnesota and dropped their playoff hopes under ten percent for the first time this season. Seven of their last nine games are against teams over .500 including rematches with Chicago and Green Bay, a tough battle against former divisional foe Tampa Bay and an end-of-the-season fight with the Super Bowl Champion Giants. A playoff projection of 8.8 percent nearly guarantees that one of the most exciting players Adrian Peterson will be missing in January.

It is true that as weeks go on, the playoff picture continues to iron out and look a bit clearer. That doesn’t mean things can’t change. Upsets may happen, players may get injured and everything can once again be turned upside-down. In the NFL, anything can happen and probably will.

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