It’s official. The Vikings will not be getting former arch-rival Brett Favre. Their season will be in the hands of Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson is coming off a season where he threw for 1911 yards, with nine touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 12 games. Fortunately the Vikings defense, which has been the best rushing defense the last two years, will also be returning.

To give the defense an added boost, the Vikings acquired Jared Allen in the offseason after finishing dead last in passing defense last season. Allen’s addition to the pass rush is leading the Vikings to 40 fewer passing yards per game in AccuScore simulations, which would have been good enough last year to place the team closer to the middle of the pack in passing defense. The overall effect is to slightly improve a defense that ranked 12th last year, with 19.4 points per game.

Jackson has a new weapon on offense, with Bernard Berrian coming over as a free agent from Chicago. Berrian is projected to catch for 621 yards and three touchdowns in AccuScore simulations, which doesn’t give Jackson too much of a boost. Jackson is only throwing for 2748 yards, with a 15:18 touchdown to interception ratio in the majority of AccuScore forecasts. Luckily, the offense has their secret weapon in the running game: the two headed monster of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor.

Peterson and Taylor are combining for almost 2500 rushing yards in AccuScore simulations. That’s an improvement of over 300 yards from their amazing totals last season. The powerful running game is taking the ball out of Jackson’s hands, allowing the Vikings to maintain their 22.8 points per game average from last season.

This, combined with the improved passing defense, is giving the Vikings a 10-6 record on the season in AccuScore forecasts, with Minnesota making the playoffs in 65.5 percent of simulations.

Click here to see how the Minnesota Vikings week one forecast against divisional rival, The Green Bay Packers.