Michael Strahan was third on the team in sacks, but he is the team leader on defense and has the biggest statistical impact in this game from the defensive end.  Over the past 2 seasons Strahan has missed nearly 25% of the Giants’ games, and his absence makes you fully realize how much better the team is with him than without him.

AccuScore likes to look at how opposing offenses perform with and without Strahan.

In these key statistical categories opposing offenses were far less effective when Strahan is active than when he was inactive.  When you compare the “with-Strahan” and “w/o Strahan” stats with what these offenses did against the rest of the league you see that opposing offenses are clearly worst when Strahan played but were better than average when Strahan did not play.

While Defensive Ends aren’t considered run stoppers, a great pass rusher like Strahan demands double teams and the linebackers are then free to make more tackles for short yardage.  Strahan may have just been 7th on the team in tackles, but when he’s playing opposing running backs find themselves with considerably fewer big holes to run through which is why the number of long runs (8+ yards indicating a run past the front 7) is jut 14.5% when Strahan is playing.

He has a direct impact on the passing game as well.  Even though completion percentage was the same with or without Strahan the passing yards per attempt was 0.5 yards lower and total yards per game was down 23 yards w/ Strahan.  This indicates that the pressure that Strahan brings forces QBs to look for short passes resulting in fewer first downs, fewer yards, and ultimately fewer points.

The Giants defense led the league in sacks this year and over the past 2 seasons had a sack rate of 8% with Strahan.  Without Strahan their rate was just 5.1% which is actually worse than the league average. 

If you look at these same stats for Osi Umenyiora when he is present or absent you see that Strahan’s presence/absence had more of a statistical impact on opposing offenses.

While the defense was better when Umenyiora played the gap between with and without is not nearly as large as it is with Strahan except for the Sack per Drop-Back stat. 

The AccuScore baseline simulation has the Patriots winning 75% of the time with Tom Brady passing for over 300 yards and the running game putting up solid numbers.  If Strahan didn’t play then the Giants’ chances declined from 25% to just 19% (a 6 percentage point drop which is a 24% drop in winning percentage).

Here’s how Tom Brady’s stat line changes if he didn’t have to deal with Strahan:

… and the running game sees a substantial boost as well.