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The Chiefs had a decent defense last year, averaging 20.9 points allowed per game, and finishing in 14th for total points allowed. The defense lost Jared Allen, but added Glenn Dorsey to the defensive line. This is allowing the Chiefs to maintain an identical 20.9 points allowed average this season. In order to improve from their dismal 4-12 record, the Chiefs need to see a drastic improvement on the offensive side of the ball this season.

The good news is that AccuScore simulations have the Chiefs offense scoring 25 percent more points this season. The bad news is that this won’t do much, as the Chiefs finished next to last in total points scored last season. The 25 percent increase only results in a 17 point per game average, which means that the Chiefs are still being outscored by 3.9 points per game, leading to their 6-10 record in AccuScore simulations, with a slim 12 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The offense enters the season with a lot of question marks. Brodie Croyle is the starting quarterback, but posted a 69.9 quarterback rating in nine games last season. Croyle threw for 136.3 yards per game, and finished with six touchdowns and six interceptions. Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez are the extent of the receiving options, which is basically the same situation as last year, and we saw how that worked out.

The key to the offense will be the running game, which needs to be effective to take the game out of Croyle’s hands. Last year Larry Johnson rushed for 3.5 yards per carry in just eight games. Johnson was impacted by injuries, but also was hurt by a poor offensive line. The Chiefs added left tackle Branden Albert in the draft to help the line, which leaves the question of Johnson’s health, and whether he can return to being an elite back this season.

Johnson and new running back Jamaal Charles are combining for over 120 rushing yards a game, and 16 rushing touchdowns this season. AccuScore forecasts have Johnson rushing for 4.5 yards per carry this season, showing that he will most likely rebound from his 2007 totals. However, if Johnson does not see this improvement, and runs for 3.8 yards per carry this season, the Chiefs drop back to another 4-12 season, according to AccuScore simulations, and have virtually no shot at the playoffs.