Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst
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Jeremy Shockey was traded to the Saints for two draft picks (2^nd and 5^th rounders). Prior to the trade, the Saints were in a virtual three-way dead-lock for the NFC South. However, AccuScore did give defending division champ, Tampa Bay, and Carolina with Jake Delhomme back, the slight edge over the Saints.

However, by acquiring Jeremy Shockey the Saints did pick up the division lead by percentage points.

The leading receiving Tight Ends on the Saints in 2007 were Eric Johnson and Billy Miller. The Saints are a pass first offense and Shockey is an upgrade at this vital position for a few reasons:

1. More Sure-Handed than Billy Miller: When the Giants (mostly Eli Manning) targeted Jeremy Shockey they completed 67 percent of passes that were not tipped or intercepted by the defense. Eric Johnson completed 84 percent and Billy Miller 70 percent. While Shockey’s percentage is lower than both of last year’s Saints TEs, this can be attributed to the fact that Drew Brees is far more accurate than Eli Manning. If you adjust for differences in accuracy, Shockey would be expected to complete 77% of passes playing for the Saints. In simulations, Shockey is more sure-handed than Billy Miller which is why he is an upgrade.

2. More Big Plays than Eric Johnson: While Shockey is not as sure-handed as Eric Johnson in simulations, he makes more big plays (more receiving touchdowns per reception, more receptions of 20+ yards). Over the past 3 seasons, Shockey has 17 receiving touchdowns in 188 receptions (9 percent of receptions are TDs). Last year with the Saints, Johnson had 2 receiving touchdowns in 48 receptions (4 percent).

Jeremy Shockey provides the Saints with more explosiveness at TE without sacrificing much in the area of actually catching the ball.

Losing Shockey did have a negative impact on the NY Giants. The Giants won a Super Bowl without Shockey and TE Kevin Boss was arguably better than Shockey when given a chance to play, but Eli Manning definitely wanted Shockey back. Here’s why. In updated simulations the Giants’ chances of making the playoffs are hurt by this trade. Their chances decline from 51 percent to 45 percent.

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