Taking a look at the close games that the Patriots had this season, we find that four teams came close to winning using different approaches.  The Eagles went heavy on the passing game, but were hurt with costly turnovers.  The Ravens gave Willis McGahee 30 carries, saw their team run for a 4.0 average, and came close to giving the 72 Dolphins a reason to toast.  The Jets took advantage of horrible weather to stay close.  The Giants took a combination of the Ravens and Eagles approach.  They combined a 4.0 yards per carry performance on the ground with a heavy passing game, but seeing a costly turnover late in the game end their chances.

While it will take a lot to de-rail the Patriots, the Jaguars have the most going for them.  They have two solid runners who can control the tempo of the game in Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.  The Patriots have given up a 26th ranked 4.4 yards per carry, but not many teams run on them because they are playing from behind.  This is no surprise, as their weakest links on defense are their aging members of the front seven, such as Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi.  The Jaguars will need to stick with the run to break down the Patriots defense.

We know what the Patriots are capable of on offense.  Current weather projections have the game time conditions to be in the 40s, which means we won’t see Brady and company limited like they were against the Jets.  The Jaguars are no cake walk though.  They have allowed a 76.1 quarterback rating to opponents, ranked seventh in the league.  Brady is putting up 324 yards and two or more touchdowns in 60 percent or more of AccuScore simulations, leading the Patriots to a victory in 81 percent of simulations.

If the Jaguars want to win, it is going to take a near perfect game, but they aren’t total long shots.  The Eagles and Giants were hurt by costly turnovers from the quarterback.  David Garrard has thrown fewer interceptions this season than any starting quarterback, Brady included.  He has completed 64 percent of his passes, and throws a touchdown pass in 5.5 percent of his attempts, both good enough to rank in the top ten.  Garrard doesn’t have near the fanfare that Brady does, but that’s not saying he isn’t an excellent quarterback who can play the mistake-free game the Jaguars need.  In AccuScore simulations Garrard is throwing for 212 yards and two or more touchdowns in 20 percent of simulations, with an interception in 70 percent of simulations.

The Jaguars have a long uphill battle.  They need to give their running backs 30 carries, run for 4 or more yards per carry, and eliminate turnovers on offense.  On defense they need to double team Randy Moss, keep tight coverage on Wes Welker, and pressure Brady with the pass rush. 

Key Match-Ups:

-Asante Samuel vs David Garrard
-Sammy Knight and Rashean Mathis vs Tom Brady
-Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew vs Patriots front seven