It was 16 years ago when Brett Favre came in for an injured Don Majkowski and defeated Cincinnati on a last minute drive. Fast forward to 2008, the future Hall of Famer is not coming back and the Aaron Rodgers era is about to begin.

Probability to win NFC North

Complete division forecasts

The AccuScore computer has the Packers are finishing second in the NFC North in current simulations with a 33 percent chance of winning the division and a 46 percent chance of making the playoffs. While these figures sound like a significant drop-off from last season's 13-3 record, the Packers are still in a close tie for one of the NFC Wildcard spots. The expected drop-off from 13 wins is due to having unproven Rodgers at QB, a more difficult schedule, and improvement from the Vikings.

Rodgers is coming into a unique situation. In his first year under center, the quarterback out of California will have a running game that was vastly improved in the final 10 games of last season compared to the first six. He also has a group of receivers that led the league in yards after the catch with 2,061 (nearly half of Favre’s 4155 passing yards). This is why the AccuScore computer calculates Rodgers should have a successful first year with 3,828 passings yards and 21.8 touchdowns.

However, if Favre was the returning starter, the Packers season may look a little different. In this alternative scenario the Packers have a 55 percent chance of winning the division and a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is performing well in baseline simulations with a passer rating of 88, but Favre's proven ability to produce touchdowns is why the Packers are doing so much better with him. By not wanting Favre back, the Packers must feel that Rodgers will be a Pro Bowl QB this season with a rating over 90.

After becoming the Packers starting running back in week eight, Ryan Grant went on a tear. In the final ten games, he averaged 95.6 yards per game and had eight touchdowns. In the first six games, Green Bay’s rush attack was averaging 65.6 yards per game and had five touchdowns. With Grant going into his first full season, AccuScore is projecting the Notre Dame Alum to rush for 1359 yards and 11.8 touchdowns.

In addition to Grant’s emergence, the defense was a big reason the Packers started the season 5-1. During that stretch, Mike McCarthy’s defense only allowed zero 300-yard passers and only one 100-yard rusher. Veteran cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson were a big reason for defense’s success and AccuScore forecasts they will torment receivers again by combining for 20 pass deflections. Add Aaron Kampman, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamilla and a strong linebacker core, and you see the formula for the Packers winning at least nine games with a 46 percent chance of making the playoff despite having a first year quarterback.

For more information on the Green Bay Packers, click here to see how the Packers will fair in the Monday Night Opener against the division rival Minnesota Vikings.