Does anyone else wonder why “experts” get paid to be on TV to come up with pearls of wisdom like:

“If the Giants pass rush can pressure Brady and force a couple turnovers and if Eli Manning continues to play mistake-free football, then the Giants have a real shot.”

One of the primary reasons for why AccuScore was even started was to be able to quantify just how much better the pass rush has to be, or how mistake-free does Eli have to be in order to make the Giants a statistical favorite (win > 50% of simulations). 

Everyone knows that for the Giants to win a lot of factors have to go in their favor.  The point of this analysis is to focus on which key statistical factors are most crucial to the Giants’ success and how much better than expected do they have to be in these areas to upset the Patriots?

These are the key factors:

1. Eli Manning’s Completion Percentage – forecasted for 55.7% he needs to be at 62.0% (6.3 percentage points means 11% better than expected).
2. Giants RB Long Run % - when a RB gets past the front 7 they typically run for 8 or more yards.  In baseline simulations, Jacobs and Bradshaw do this in 18% of carries.  They need to be at 21% (more than 1 in 5) which is a 17% improvement in this part of the game.
3. Giants Run 55% of the Time – if the Giants are behind big late in the game they will have to pass, but when the game is close they run 49% of the time in simulations.  They should increase this to 55% of the time. 
4. Giants Pass Rush Needs to Sack Brady 4+ Times – the Giants are forecasted to sack Tom Brady twice.  They need to double their baseline sack rate.

The bad news for Giants fans is this is a lot of things that need to go your way.  Factor #2 and #3 are tough to deal in combination because if the Giants do call for more rush attempts and the Patriots defensive scheme expects this then it will be hard for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to increase the number of long runs they get.  It is also tough to sack Tom Brady twice as much as expected.  If the Giants blitz like crazy they put tremendous pressure on the secondary to cover Moss, Welker, Watson, Stallworth, Gaffney, Faulk, etc. one-on-one. 

You can see why the Giants are heavy underdogs despite arguably playing more impressive football than the Patriots in the playoffs.

The good news for Giants fans is none of these 4 factors is beyond reason.  Obviously, the team can control which plays to call so #3 is a no brainer.  Eli Manning has completed over 62% of his passes in the playoffs in some tough conditions.  Jacobs and Bradshaw are running well. Jacobs is a monster who has averaged over 4.5 ypc for his career and Bradshaw is at 5.7 in his 62 career carries (regular season and playoffs).  The Giants led the league in sacks and averaged over 3 per game.

If the Giants can succeed in these 4 parts of the game they win a shade over 45% of simulations even with the Patriots playing at their normal, high level. 

I know what you are saying --- 45% isn’t a statistical favorite.  The one additional factor that comes into play is where Tom Brady gets sacked and if the Giants can strip the ball from him and recover fumbles.  In these simulations Brady has a 55% chance of losing a fumble.  If the Giants not only sack Brady 4 times, but they also force a fumble and recover (preferably in scoring position), then they pull off the upset.