We are a little over a month into the NFL and College Football Seasons and the early returns are in...and solid.

In NCAA Football, AccuScore PRO live betting predictions have delivered positive returns for point spreads in 4 of 5 Weeks. It has been positive in over/unders in 3 of 5 weeks.

Overall, AccuScore has generated profits every single week.

After 5 weeks 2007 College Football predictions are matching 2006 numbers.

In the NFL, Week 1 was admittedly rocky. But since a 10-17 start on point spreads and over/unders, Live Betting Predictions have delivered a 21-14 record on point spreads (60%) and a 26-16 record on over/unders (62%).

The one clear observation from the early part of the NFL Season is the relative minor difference between AccuScore's simulation lines and Vegas lines. A vast majority of lines are 2 points or less different. In Week 1, 10 of 11 Vegas lines changed from Thursday to Friday in the "direction" of AccuScore's simulation medians.

So the early returns are in for football and things look good. It's with a bit of sadness that the MLB Season is almost over because we had a tremendous year on our Side Values ending the regular season just shy of +10,000.

NOW HERE COMES THE SHAMELESS PLUG

Forgive us for blatantly promoting our service, but if you're not a current PRO member, but you do like to make an investment here and there, you are really making a mistake but trying to get your predictions off the Game Preview or forecasted average scores. Here's why...

The average scores DO NOT tell you how to invest. The simulation median tells you the betting line, the simulation average reports different predictions than the median in as many as 50% of all games.

For example, if you used simulation medians to bet MLB Over / Unders this season you would have done well (52.4% overall, +2300 for all games with a line of 8.5 or less). If you used Simulation Averages for these games you would have been down 1730.

Another example comes from CBS. Their Harmon Forecast uses AccuScore's simulation average scores for the NFL. CBS takes AccuScore averages to determine picks against the spread.

By using the simulation average CBS reports a 132-130-5 record for Harmon in the NFL 2006 Season. If you were a PRO Member in 2006 you would have been able to get detailed information on simulation medians vs. betting lines. You see that when there was a small difference PRO yielded 55-56 record, but when the differences got more pronounced the record was 64-49-1 (56.6%, +1010).

Averages are good for quick descriptions and for office pool analysis, but for real investing if you don't have the median values from AccuScore PRO you don't have any investment value.

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admin said:

MCM, The reason we generally put forth the median values for this is that in the simualtions, "investors" are more interested to know where 50/50 split is in the sims. For some sports, the medians and means are very close, like basketball and baseball, but for football, they tend to be farther apart. Does that make sense? ACS

October 05, 2007

mcmister said:

So for the upcoming Cardinals vs. Rams game... Cardinals at Rams Over/Under: 43 Over 43: 46.5% Under 43: 48.9% 43 is the median, half way between all simulations, with 46.5% of the sims being over and 48.9% being under? Without getting too technical, why is the median more accurate than the average? Why not the mode? Thank you

October 05, 2007

admin said:

Tippy, Thanks for the question. The median values can be found in the Point Spread Tool, Over Under Tool, and Pro Player Analyzer. The initial value that appears for each is actually the median value. From there, you can adjust according to your needs. ACS

October 04, 2007

tippy said:

I was inquiring about the simulation median value, where would I be able to locate median value??? I just became a pro member and was wondering how to use this analysis.

October 04, 2007

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