Despite another tough playoff game for quarterback Tony Romo, an active off-season has the Cowboys poised to be the top team in the NFC.

The Cowboys lead the NFC in playoff probability making the post-season in 82.4 percent of the season simulations. The running game should thrive with Marion Barber firmly entrenched as the starter and with Romo sustaining his regular season success. The Cowboys are averaging over 27 points per game in simulations.

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Last season, Barber shared duties with Julius Jones all year, and was still able to get 10 touchdowns and 975 yards. The job is now his to lose and the AccuScore computer forecasts Barber to thrive as the featured back while rushing for 1377 yards and 12 touchdowns. This will help Romo, Terrell Owens and Jason Whitten, who are all forecasted to produce less than they did a year ago.

Barber may be an important factor as a full-time starter, but no one is as important as the celebrity quarterback. Romo has proven to be an exciting quarterback, whose numbers are also volatile. Last season, he had the second most interceptions (19) in the league, which was offset by being second in the league with 36 touchdown passes.

When looking at the individual simulations for Cowboys, we found that Dallas's winning percentage does not increase when Romo passes for over 300 yards. In fact, the more yards Romo passes for the lower the winning percentage. This is the case for many QBs since more passing yards often result in games where a team falls behind by a big margin. However, when Romo throws no more than 1 interception in a game, the Cowboys' chances increase by 10 percentage points. It is more important for Romo to throw under 15 interceptions than it is to pass for over 4,000 yards.

The defense made many key additions in the off-season, with a strong year in the draft and free agency. They signed Zach Thomas at linebacker, drafted cornerback Mike Jenkins out of South Florida and traded for Adam Jones.

With six games against the league’s most potent offenses, the defense is forecasted to allow 1 more point per game this year despite all the upgrades. However, if the offense can meet their statistical expectation, the one point should not matter as the Cowboys are projected to finish 11-5 and at the top of the NFC East.

For more information on the Dallas Cowboys, click here to see how Jerry Jones’ Cowboys will fair against the Cleveland Browns.