| Back Up Game Plan |
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Every week AccuScore simulates each NFL game 10,000 times to discover the probability of each team winning their contest. Each week I look at those simulations and find certain strategies or depth chart issues that I feel need to be altered in order to give the team in question a better chance to win. The new scenarios are run through the AccuScore super computer 10,000 times, with the new simulation results illustrating the benefit of my new game plan. With the trade deadline passing on Tuesday, I will be analyzing the Roy Williams trade for the Cowboys, as well as a potential deal that did not take place. Roy Williams to Dallas While the Roy Williams trade will certainly have a major fantasy impact for the value of Williams, it won’t do much to boost the value of the Dallas Cowboys. Tony Romo was having no problems in the passing game, finding guys like Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton when Terrell Owens and Jason Witten were covered. The addition of Williams will most likely take catches away from Crayton and Austin, with the end result being a minimal change in the way the Dallas offense works. AccuScore simulations confirm this, with the addition of Williams providing about a one point increase per game for the Dallas offense. While the move by Dallas was certainly high profile, it does little to address their true needs. Part of the reason Dallas lost last week was due to issues with the offensive line. Tony Romo was sacked three times, and the running game only managed 3.3 yards per carry. With Brad Johnson under center the next few games, expect that sack total to go up, as Johnson doesn’t provide the mobility that Romo provides to avoid the pressure. Custom AccuScore simulations show that Dallas’ chances of winning drop 12.4 percentage points this weekend when the lowly Rams sack Brad Johnson at least three times. Based on last weekend’s pressure, and Johnson’s ability to resemble a fence post, three sacks is likely to happen, which could make Sunday’s game a bit harder for Dallas to win. Tony Gonzalez stays in Kansas City Rumors were going around that Tony Gonzalez would be dealt by the Chiefs, most notably to the New York Giants. No deal was made, and Gonzalez remains with the Chiefs, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see what type of impact he would have made with the Giants. The result is that he provides very little impact to the Giants. New York is projected to go 8-3 in current baseline AccuScore simulations. With Gonzalez added to the mix, the Giants see some minimal changes to their weekly winning percentages, but nothing that would change the record drastically. On average, Gonzalez has a one percent impact on the Giants. The biggest impact Gonzalez would have had were in games against the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Panthers. In each of these games Gonzalez improved the Giants’ chances of winning by about four percentage points, and added an extra point to the average score. Dallas, Arizona, and Carolina are potential playoff teams, which means that while Gonzalez may not play a difference in the regular season, he could have made an impact in the playoffs against one of these teams, or a similar team. Trackback(0)
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BigAC
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I find the Roy Williams analysis interesting, but is it the whole story? Any sports enthusiast will agree that TO should have a lot more space to operate with a true speed threat opposite him. Is this shown in the simulation with a spike in catches for TO? How are considerations such as changes in defensive strategy taken into account (obviously can't double TO and RW now)? Also, is RW evaluated differently with having an improved QB to work with (Romo vs Kitna)? I am not attacking your analysis as much as I am trying to understand. Thanks |
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