| Back Up Game Plan Week Eight |
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Every week AccuScore simulates each NFL game 10,000 times to discover the probability of each team winning their contest. Each week I look at those simulations and find certain strategies or depth chart issues that I feel need to be altered in order to give the team in question a better chance to win. The new scenarios are run through the AccuScore super computer 10,000 times, with the new simulation results illustrating the benefit of my new game plan. Here are three situations to look at for week eight. Quarterback change in San Francisco? After fumbling four times and throwing two interceptions last week, J.T. O’Sullivan’s job as the starting quarterback is in doubt in San Francisco. O’Sullivan has nine interceptions and six fumbles in the last four weeks, with just five touchdown passes and only two games with over 200 passing yards. Shaun Hill would be the replacement for the 49ers if O’Sullivan were to be replaced. The 49ers are winning 57.8 percent of simulations this weekend with O’Sullivan as the starting quarterback. Seattle is managing two turnovers and three sacks in baseline simulations, with O’Sullivan throwing for 177 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. In custom simulations with Shaun Hill as the 49ers quarterback, the 49ers are winning 81.1 percent of simulations against the Seahawks, showing a substantial difference between Hill and O’Sullivan. In those custom simulations, Hill is completing ten percent more passes than O’Sullivan, throwing for 40 percent more touchdowns, 27 more yards, and most importantly 70 percent fewer interceptions. Hill is also doing a better job of evading the Seattle pass rush, only being sacked twice in half of simulations. The main problem in San Francisco is not the quarterback, but the protection. O’Sullivan has been sacked 29 times in seven games, including six times last week. Shaun Hill does a better job avoiding the pass rush, which gives him more time to make decisions, leading to fewer interceptions and fumbles. The 49ers may think O’Sullivan is a talented quarterback, but the problem is he is not the right quarterback to put behind that offensive line. Which quarterback to use in Seattle? Charlie Frye started in week six against the Packers, and the Seahawks lost 27-17. Frye completed 12 of 23 passes for 83 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Seneca Wallace started in week seven against the Bucs, and the Seahawks lost 20-10. Wallace completed 12 of 23 passes for 73 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Besides the similar numbers, both quarterbacks show that the Seahawks are in trouble without Matt Hasselbeck. The question is, which one is the better start this weekend? In baseline AccuScore simulations, Wallace is getting the start, and is passing for 210 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in 60 percent of simulations. Seattle is winning 42.2 percent of simulations against the 49ers with Wallace as the quarterback. In simulations with Frye as the quarterback, the results are basically the same. Frye is passing for 213 yards, with 10 percent fewer touchdowns than Wallace, and ten percent more interceptions. Wallace is completing 54.4 percent of his passes, while Frye is completing 59 percent of his passes. However, Frye is being sacked three times, while Wallace is only being sacked twice. While the names may change in Seattle, if the jersey does not read “Hasselbeck”, the results will stay the same. Seattle’s best chance of winning lies with Matt Hasselbeck, and the debate between Wallace and Frye is basically pointless. Help arriving in Philadelphia The Eagles will get a big boost this weekend, as not only will they see the return of star running back Brian Westbrook, but wide receivers Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown will also make their return to the lineup. The Eagles are winning 75 percent of simulations against the Falcons, with Westbrook combining for 115 total yards and a touchdown, while Brown and Curtis are combining to receive for 103 yards with a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations. Wanting to see which return was more valuable to the Eagles, I simulated the Eagles without Westbrook, and the Eagles without the duo of Curtis and Brown. Without Westbrook in the lineup, the Eagles are winning 72.5 percent of simulations. Correll Buckhalter is running for 100 yards and a touchdown in place of Westbrook, making up for the loss of the star running back. Without Curtis and Brown in the lineup, the Eagles are winning 71.7 percent of simulations. Westbrook and Buckhalter are combining for 117 yards and a touchdown on the ground to make up for the loss in the passing game. Donovan McNabb is throwing for 20 percent fewer touchdowns without Curtis and Brown. The Eagles have a great shot at winning this weekend no matter who returns. However, the simulations show that the Eagles benefit more from the return of Curtis and Brown than they do from Westbrook. That speaks well of the ability of Westbrook, as his value to the Eagles is very close to two wide receivers. Trackback(0)
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