In this presidential primary season did you ever wonder why the actual results often were 5 to 10 percentage points off from the poll results taken the previous night?  Besides the fact that people change their mind, most of these polls survey around 1,000 people and while that sounds like a lot, you still have plenty of room for error.

In any statistical analysis, the more data you have the more confident you are in your analysis.  There’s a reason why we’ll take more time to run 10,000 simulations and not just 1, like some video game manufacturers like to do, or even 100 as some “less professional” sports analytics services may run.

So I write the following analysis touting the value of the Giants’ Ahmad Bradshaw with a grain of salt.  The man has had 62 carries in his entire career.

Even though Bradshaw doesn’t have a long track record your own eyes will confirm that he is a quick player who seems to excel at making the first defender miss and his elusiveness has allowed him to average 5.7 yards per carry in those 62 carries.  In the playoffs the Giants have relied on him heavily and he has provided much of the “lightning” that Tiki Barber had to go along with Brandon Jacobs’ “thunder”.

You see the Baseline Forecasted statistics for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw in the Super Bowl below.  In the Baseline the Giants win 25% of the time.  AccuScore then ran 2 alternative scenarios to evaluate Ahmad Bradshaw’s value and impact on the game.  The first scenario has the Giants playing without Bradshaw.  Brandon Jacobs gets the bulk of the carries and off-season acquisition Reuben Droughns gives Jacobs a break here and there.  The second scenario has Bradshaw as the primary RB with Jacobs going back to his short yardage and goal-line rushing role that he had backing up Tiki Barber.

The Giants’ winning percentage is highest when Bradshaw is the primary RB getting 20 carries.  Bradshaw is worth around 2 points on the scoreboard so if the Giants are losing by 10 in the baseline they lose by just 8 with Bradshaw as primary back.  Given the Patriots have won 3 Super Bowls, each by 3 points, you can see the value of even 1 additional point.

With the numbers favoring a strategy of using Bradshaw as the primary RB and Jacobs as the short yardage and goal-line RB, Giants fans may think that the Coaches are out of their mind if they don’t adopt the strategy.  The reason why even I don’t advise the Giants to necessarily put too much stock in these numbers is that they are based on a player who only has 62 carries.  If you used a 62 carry sample to evaluate LaDainian Tomlinson you would think he was a horrible player if you used his first 66 carries (under 3.5 ypc) of the season or a great player if you used his next 66 carries (over 5.5 ypc).

Another “strike” against thinking Bradshaw could come in and rush for 100 yards as a primary RB in the Super Bowl is the fact that if you removed a single 88 yard run vs Buffalo his 5.7 ypc on 62 runs goes down to just 4.3 ypc on 61 carries. 

While it’s a very positive sign that a RB has the burst and breakaway speed to have an 88 yard run in bad weather vs. a good team in a high pressure situation, it also skews the data.  His longest run after the 88 yarder is just 11.  Instead of being on the 12 yard line, what if that 77 run occurred in the Red Zone and went for an impressive 18 yard run? 

The public may have seen 62 Ahmad Bradshaw carries, but the Giants’ coaching staff has probably seen hundreds more in practice.  They should know how to best use this promising young player.