| AFC Preaseason Forecast |
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I’m going to start this AFC Preview with the response that I anticipate receiving. “Dear F*****, I hate when nerds like you think you no [intentionally misspelled] something about football just cause you have a computer. I’m sure you guys had us last place last year and how’d that work out for ya? The jets win 10 games last year, pick up Thomas Jones and you don’t even give them a chance of making the Playoffs? You have them behind Miami!! I hope you and your **** computer have fun together, since I know you never actually have any contact with a woman, or another human being. I’m going to tracking this and I can’t wait to see Mangenius hoisting the Lombardi Trophy over his head, while you are at home doing what you do best -- sucking!- JETSIN08 So based on this anticipated posting, you can probably guess how the Jets are faring in preliminary AccuScore simulations. To run these simulations we play the entire season 10,000 times and tabulate the number of times each team makes the Playoffs as a Division Winner or Wildcard. *Forecasts are updated frequently. Check out Season Forecast.
We encourage everyone to start their own AccuScore blog or make their own posts to discuss why you agree or disagree with these numbers. But angry fans aside, let me provide my interpretation of these numbers. MORE STABILITY AT THE TOP Unlike last year, we have a case where the top AFC Teams have either improved or at least maintained their lofty status. San Diego is the most talented team and Philip Rivers should get better with experience and Norv Turner at Head Coach. New England got Randy Moss, Donte’ Stallworth, and Adalius Thomas. Baltimore replaced Jamal Lewis with Willis McGahee. The Colts are the defending Champs and their key pieces are all still in place. It really is not surprising to see these four teams all forecasted to return to the Playoffs. JETS AND JAGUARS DISAPPOINT / DELIGHT The biggest statistical reason for why the Jets are performing poorly in simulations is the strength of schedule. In 2006, the Jets played just 4 games vs. Playoff Teams. In 2007 they face 7 teams that made the 2006 Playoffs. They also have Cincinnati and Pittsburgh on the schedule. These teams didn’t make the Playoffs but they are certainly not slouches. The Jaguars are surprisingly strong in simulations. However, when you again look at the fact that AccuScore focuses on tangible statistics in simulating sports, you realize that the Jags are only doing as well as their own numbers indicate they should be doing. Did you know that the 2006 Jaguars with their 8-8 record had an average margin of victory was +6.1 points? Did you realize that the Super Bowl Champion Colts won by just an average of +4.2 points? Jacksonville was great at home and if not for a downright puzzling pair of losses to lowly Houston and some injuries to key starters the Jaguars would have easily been a 10-6 team. They won 12 games in 2005. They have a dominant running game with Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. Even though Byron Leftwich doesn’t look capable of leading the team to a successful Super Bowl run, he is good enough to get them into the Playoffs. Also going for the Jaguars is the fact that every year a team successfully bounces back from a poor performance in the previous season. Last year the Ravens and Chargers went from no Playoffs to leading the conference in wins. OTHER FANS WHO HATE ME The Bengals fans really hate me. First, even though I try to be objective I can’t mask my love of the Ravens. The good thing is prior to last season every angry Bengal fan would have responded with the same old “Ray Lewis is a criminal” angle. First, that is total BS, but more importantly, with all the bad behavior for the Bengals, Cincinnati fans no longer take that tactic in bashing the Ravens. The reasons why Cincinnati is not doing as well as their fans would expect is the fact that the defense is mediocre and there are no clear signs for why they will be much better this year. I also think that Chris Henry’s suspension hurts the team. While Houshmandzadeh and Johnson are the stars at WR, Henry makes the most of his one-on-one coverage and ends up getting more TDs per game than the other guys. The Bengals have my respect, but in the end defense wins championships and even without Adalius Thomas, the Ravens have the defense. No one knows this better than Head Coach Marvin Lewis. I will admit that Carson Palmer scares the you know what out of me. When Henry is in the lineup then I know poor old Samari Rolle is going to get torched. With Henry suspended the Ravens can help out Rolle and not leave him isolated with those great WRs. The Titans fans also may want to angrily respond to the forecast. But you know what? AccuScore is only going on the facts. Tennessee lost its 2 leading receivers and its leading rusher. The team has serious question marks at RB and Vince Young is not a great passer. Pac-Man Jones is a shutdown CB and a dangerous punt returner. His off-field antics may make him a distraction but his talent on the field will be missed. CLOSING WORD For all the angry fans out there, I encourage you to let your opinions fly. All I ask is that you limit hostility to me personally and not my family. I also ask that you try to be logical and fact-based in your analysis. I believe in giving partial credit when rating analysts. You may not end up being right, but if you make a logical, fact based argument then I think the analysis has merit, regardless of whether it is wrong or right. Trackback(0)
Comments (8)
John "Representing Steeler Nation"
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In my eyes this season is null and void already, go get the Lombardi from the Colts and ship it to New England. Borrowing injuries this team should be elite, Belichick has been a genious at plugging holes so fixing the temporary loss of Harrison and possibly the season long loss to Seymour will be normal day to day business for him. Colts/Patriots in AFC championship, sorry Chargers fans, Norv Turner couldn't take a Pro-Bowl squad from Hawaii to the Super Bowl. Anyone of 5 teams could be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Honestly your guess is as good as mine there but I will take some sleeper teams just to make my picks controversial. Redskins/Cowboys. Yes the NFC is that bad. |
Steeler Nation
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This is directed at the bengals fans and browns fans that are living in fantasy land thinking they are not ranked in the bottom 2 spots of the AFC North respectively. The Old saying is defense wins championships and they don't have it, were as the Ravens and the Steelers certainly do. I completely understand supporting your team but lets be realistic and know your place in the division. |
admin
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The bengals are now covered. |
www.bbnflstats.com
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You left out the Bengals from the list of probabilities. |
DocHolliday.
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So if I understand Joshua correctly...trading Droughns for a 4th string wide out and replacing Droughns with an aged Jamal Lewis was a good idea? Please put down the pipe. Two 4-12 seasons and one 6-10 season in the past three years was not the fault of Droughns, how ever you want to pronounce it. Last year Droughns had a sub-par season. Why? Because he didn't get the ball...because Cleveland didn't have the ball! Droughns only had 220 carries all season. If he had 300 carries, as most normal starters would have, he goes over 1000 yards. Last year Droughns was banged up a lot but the previous year, Droughns' first year with Cleveland, he was the first RB for the Browns to go over 1000 yards since 1985. 1985. 1985. In case you don't have an abacus handy, that's 20 years without a 1000 yard rusher. Droughns is not the problem, Cleveland not having the ball or not doing anything with it when they have it is the problem and Jamal Lewis certainly won't fix that. The defense not getting the ball back for their offense is the problem. AND YOU ACTUALLY THINK DROUGHNS WAS THE PROBLEM AND NOW EVERYTHING IS GREAT WITH JAMAL LEWIS? The team has done little to improve this off-season. Last season they were 31st in offense and 29th in defense. You aren’t sure but you don't think they'll win the division? Are you kidding? If they get 5 wins, I'll pee my pants. |
roidrage
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I'm thinking that Phil Savage, former Director of Player Personnel with Baltimore, is still on the Ravens' payroll. Why else would he go out and get Jamal Lewis? although reporters are saying Jamal looks good, but most people look fresh in training camp. I think Jon Clayton said he looked good after having a 2nd ankle surgery. The fact that he underwent a 2nd surgery on his ankle doesn't bode well. |
Joshua
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I just watched the AFC NORTH video. And while I don't think the browns will win the division. gabby was right when he said "he doesn't know whats going on up there" Making the point that two years ago browns had a number of better running backs, proves that point. Lee Suggs and William Green aren't even in football anymore. And by the way you pronounce Droughns "drones", not the two different ways you tried it. You definitely proved you don't know much about the browns, the afc north, or much about the nfl outside of your favorite team. If you guys really want to make this thing work, get somebody else to do this, or do your homework, so you know what you are talking about. |
jimmy, "In Marvin we trust."
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you need to get a life. if you think the purple queer birds will be better then the bengals this year you need to keep on smoking that purple pipe. lets see what you have to say after the monday nighter. ill be waiting to hear your response. |
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