| 19-0 vs Other Great Records |
|
|
|
The Patriots’ were a perfect 16-0 this season. While they had two big wins over some great teams on the road (@ Indianapolis, @ Dallas), by and large they had the perfect storm for going perfect – a super talented team playing in an extremely weak division. AccuScore re-ran its season playoff simulation 100,000 times and found that under the same conditions the Patriots went 16-0 in 4,371 simulations (4.4%). The Patriots have a 75% chance of winning the Super Bowl now that they are in the Big Game. Heading into the playoffs, New England had a 55% chance of winning the Super Bowl and going 19-0. [NOTE: New England’s chances were 5 to 25 times as high as the rest of the playoff teams]. So the chance of a team under comparable conditions going 19-0 is 2.4%. Now this 2.4% is extremely low, but it pales in comparison to two notable Major League Baseball records. While the Patriots have already exceeded the Dolphins 17-0 mark, there is a reason why no baseball player has come within 10 of Joe DiMaggio’s hit streak and Orel Hershiser’s innings without giving up a run (earned or unearned). AccuScore simulated a 151 Game Season with a batter who hit .357 like Joe DiMaggio did that season. In 100,000 simulations the record was tied just 151 times. If you think that 0.15% is impressive, we ran 100,000 simulations of a pitcher with Orel Hershiser’s stats in his record-breaking season and there were only 2 simulations (out of 100,000) where a simulated player matched Hershiser’s record. The probability of matching these records would go up if it didn’t have to happen in the same season, but the analysis was based on tying the records within one regular season. If I were a betting man I wouldn’t bet on any of these records falling within the next 20 years. In the case of the baseball records, maybe never.
Trackback(0)
Comments (6)
Rick Z
said:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
TrackBack URI for this entry
Subscribe to this comment's feed |
Computers, odds makers, and experts are used so the time prior to the actual game can be filled. It also gives people a starting point to argue whether or not their team is the best team and provides fuel for the fire. Comparing feats in football to ones in baseball is just another way to add lines to a story and is just plain stupid. Who cares the odds of pitching a # of scorless innings or the # of games getting a hit, or for that matter the odds of another team going 19-0! The only odds that matter are the ones the Patriots have in winning the Super Bowl! |
Patriot1
said:
|
Speonjosh, want a hug. One writer quoted once that everyone in the nation is either loving the Patriots or hating them. The fact is that everyone still cares. Where did the sportsmanship go. |
Patriot1
said:
|
Longneck is really hurt. You should just face the FACTS that the Patriots are going to win. |
speonjosh
said:
|
Sorry to see your readership seems to consist of 12 yo boys. Anyway, if your simulations indicate that Hershieser's and Dimaggio's records only happen very very rarely, doesn't that seem to indicate that in addition to being very very good these two were also quite lucky? I would argue that records that involve less luck are actually more impressive. Which is hard for me to do because I really don't like these Patriots. |
longneck
said:
|
Does everyone read this crap we all know that the underdog is going to win so who cares. |
longneck
said:
|
this is stupid let them play the game and see what happens patriots suck. |
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|