| Week 2 College Football Previews |
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The second weekend of the College Football Season starts Thursday. Here's how AccuScore projects several key match-ups. Go to the Game Previews to get full analysis of over 40 Division 1-A Games this week. NAVY VS RUTGERS By Jonathan Lee Rutgers is once again a huge favorite this week winning 85% of the time against Navy in AccuScore simulations. It's a huge change from the past when Rutgers was often on the other end of such mismatches on a weekly basis. Navy is still a strictly ground based outfit running the triple option, and spreading carries among several players. They'll likely be little match for the Scarlet Knights' firepower. Running back Ray Rice should have a huge day, which have become a weekly occurrence in New Jersey. Rice is averaging around 175 yards and two scores in AccuScore forecasts, and has almost a 25% at 200 yards. Quarterback Mike Teel had a big day against the Midshipmen a year ago, and coming on the heels of an impressive performance through the air in the opener against Buffalo might have a chance to pad his stats some more. This game shouldn't be close, and looks for the Knights to win by at least two touchdowns. NOTRE DAME VS PENN STATE By Erik Cardona Time to light some candles in the Grado because celebrations under touchdown Jesus look to be few and far between these days in South Bend. With a QB carousel resulting in Notre Dame’s worst home opening loss in its storied history, Coach Charlie Weis is going to need to find some luck of the Irish if he plans on getting his team into the victory column any time soon. Unfortunately for the Fighting Irish, our computers have things getting worse before they get any better. Notre Dame has to go on the road this week to face the legend Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions with Accuscore painting them as 9-1 underdogs. Every statistical offensive category has Penn St favored heavily. The Lions are projected to out pass, out rush, and most importantly, outscore Notre Dame in a landslide. Total offensive numbers have the Lions dominating the Irish by more than 240 yards in the air and on the ground. A rebuilding year is putting it mildly when considering Notre Dame. The offense was absolutely gutted with seniors fleeing to the NFL, and though the Zbikowski led defense should keep things close early, the inexperienced offensive leadership in newly named starter Jimmy Clausen spells doom for the Irish running game. The lack of production behind center last week vs Georgia Tech left the patchwork set of tailbacks Weis employs with a dreary -8 rushing yards on 40 carries. Look for the Nittany Lions to pull away in the third quarter and not look back. Penn St QB Anthony Morelli is projected to throw for over 220 yards and a score. The Lions’ rapid, attacking defense is also likely to help pile on points, with breakdowns in protection from pressuring blitz packages haunting Clausen for as long as he remains in the game. Penn St’s D now has 3 shutouts in its last 6 contests. OREGON VS MICHIGAN By Jonathan Lee It stands to reason that now that Michigan has to play an actual live football team that from the FBS (Div. 1A) they'll have even more trouble than they had in their now infamous opener. In reality, the Wolverines aren't really as bad as they showed in their opener. Or are they? Well, according to our simulations at least they aren't. Michigan is winning almost 65% of simulations by an average margin of just about 7 points. Their offense should be fine in theory with QB Chad Henne, OL Jake Long, and WR Mario Manningham. The engine though is RB Mike Hart. When he missed a few series last week, the offense sputtered. If he had played the whole game, MIchigan might not have lost in all reality. Oregon QB Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart will have to try and score enough points to make up for their defense, but that might be hard to do on the road. Michigan and its fans should be sufficiently riled up after last week and will be looking for a big bounce back performance. Of course though, if tiny Appalachian St. can win in the Big House, Oregon definitely has a shot. SOUTH CAROLINA VS GEORGIA By Erik Cardona Though Accuscore has Georgia winning its contest against South Carolina 60% of the time, projections tend to favor the Gamecocks in several isolated statistical areas. South Carolina is projected to out rush (153yards – 132yards), out pass (220yards – 215 yards), and even win the turnover battle at 2 – 1.7 TOs per average contest. The Bulldogs have always had a stingy defense that look to be opportunistic against a Spurrier-led offense known for airing the ball out. The difference here might be the experience level of Blake Mitchell. As a three year starter, Mitchell has improved his TD to INT ratio considerably. In this match-up, despite the Ol’ Ball Coach’s tendency to gamble, it is actually Geogia’s QB Matthew Stafford who’s projected to have a higher INT average through simulations. The Bulldogs boast a very young squad with 12 new starters (4 on offense, 8 on defense) whose play last Saturday was very impressive in a 35-14 victory over Oklahoma St. However, conference games are a different beast altogether. Talent alone may not be enough for Mark Richt’s squad against the Gamecocks. They’ll need Stafford to play mistake-free and rely on a pulsating sea of red in the stands to grant the Bulldogs the momentum they need to overcome their inexperience Saturday. MIAMI VS OKLAHOMA By Zach Rosenfield From September 28, 1985 to January 1, 1988 the Oklahoma Sooners averaged 11 wins a year and were nearly unstoppable. They went to three straight Orange Bowl’s, won a National Championship and compiled a 33-3 record. Nobody could be the Sooners; nobody except the Miami Hurricanes. Miami’s three wins in three seasons against the Sooners was a hostile take over of the nation’s top spot and effectively changed the landscape of the game. The wishbone was dead. Wide open offenses and chest pounding arrogance was now in charge. 19 years, 8 months and 7 days later, the two teams meet again with Oklahoma to looking to put the past behind them. The Sooners season got off to a fast start when redshirt freshman Sam Bradford passed for 3TD’s and 300+ yards in leading OU to a 79-10 win over North Texas. Things continue to look bright for the nation’s fifth-ranked team with starting running back Allen Patrick returning from a sprained ankle. Patrick is the catalyst for Miami’s match-up problems and forces the ‘Canes to choose if it’s more important to stop the run or defend the pass. When Miami loads the box, Bradford will get 1-on-1 with WR’s Malcolm Kelly and Juaquin Iglesias, who combined for 246 yards last week. If Miami lines up in the nickel on 1st and 2nd down, Patrick should have an easy time meeting his 4.9 yard average carry, which will provide OU with plenty of big play opportunities. Freshman sensation DeMarco Murray is coming off a 5 TD performance and should get at least 15-touches with plays designed to get him in space. Although Miami opened their season with a 31-3 win against Marshall, it is easy to be misled by the lopsided victory. The Hurricane’s offense struggled with Kirby Freeman completing a modest 9 of 21 passes for 81 yards. The more experienced backup Kyle Wright increases Miami’s chances of winning by 5% if he plays, meaning Freeman will be on a short leash. For Miami to win, they will need to manage the clock and rely heavily on running backs Javarris James and Graig Cooper to once again make big plays and keep the Sooner offense off the field. Oklahoma-Miami sounded great when the game was scheduled, but Miami is rebuilding and Oklahoma reloading. These team’s head-to-head history has always been about weapons and in 2007, Oklahoma has them and Miami doesn’t. The Sooners are a 78.4% probability to avenge the losses from the mid-80’s and 54% to do so by double digits. Trackback(0)
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shakfu
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Erik, What is a Grado? |
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