BASELINE: TCU 65% HOU 35%  |  SCORE: 34-27

Two in-state schools will square off the in the Texas Bowl. Houston enters the game without its coach Art Briles who headed north to Baylor.  TCU is winning over 65% of simulations by an average margin of seven points. Frogs quarterback Andy Dalton is forecasted for over 220 yards passing and two touchdowns.

Houston is lead by running back Anthony Aldridge who rushed for an impressive 1450 yards rushing and 12 scores this season. He will carry the load for the Cougars in the Texas Bowl and is projected for 130 yards while averaging over five yards per carry.

CASE KAENUM VS BLAKE JOSEPH

Two players, Case Keenum and Blake Joseph, see plenty of action at quarterback for Houston. For the season, Keenum has completed a higher percentage of his passes (69% to 65%) and runn for five times as many yards (367 yards and eight touchdowns to 73 yards and one touchdown) than Joseph.  However, Joseph passed for more yards per attempt, slightly more touchdowns per attempt, and just four interceptions in 155 attempts against 10 interceptions in 235 attempts for Keenum.

AccuScore was curious to see if Houston’s win probability was better if they used either Keenum or Joseph, but not both. Below are simulations with each quarterback as the featured player show why Houston utilizes both in game. 

© AccuScore.com

Despite some differences in stat lines of the two players (notably completion percentage and interceptions), the overall winning percentage for Houston is virtually the same no matter who is under center.

DEFENSE WINS BOWL GAMES
Based on yards allowed per game TCU is the 2nd ranked defense in the country.  Houston is ranked 72nd out of 119 teams.  AccuScore swapped defenses and re-ran the game.  Houston goes from being a 35 percent underdog to becoming the 66 percent favorite.  

© AccuScore.com

TCU’s edge over Houston is clearly tied to their superior defense.