Baseline: Utah 61%, Navy 39%; Utah 35, Navy 29

Navy will be going through a transition in the Poinsettia Bowl without former coach Paul Johnson, who has departed for Georgia Tech. Johnson was the architect of a stunning turnaround at the Naval Academy. After going 2-10 in his first season in 2002, Johnson led Navy to five straight bowl games and only lost once to another service academy (Air Force in 2002).

Utah enters with a six-game bowl winning streak, second-longest in the nation. Despite Navy's dominating option rushing attack, the Utes are winning over 60% of simulations, by an average of six points. Utah's balanced spread offense is the difference, with quarterback Brian Johnson throwing for 220 yards and two scores and running back Darrell Mack rushing for 95 yards.

Navy can win by holding on to the ball

Navy is very good at holding on to the ball. The Midshipmen only lost 11 fumbles despite running the ball over 80 percent of the time. Utah is rated in the top 15 in forcing fumbles. In simulations, Navy loses a fumble in 3.8% of their carries, which translates to an average of 1.4 lost fumbles per simulation. If Utah did not have success forcing fumbles and Navy had just a 1% chance of losing a fumble per carry, the Midshipmen would average under one turnover per sim and their chances of winning would increase from 38% to 47%.

What if Navy ran Utah's offense and vice versa?

Stylistically, these two teams are very different on offense. Navy averages only 11 pass attempts with over 50 rushes per simulation. It should be noted that Utah does not rely solely on the pass, but they do skew towards the aerial attack, throwing on 55 percent of plays. We wanted to see what would happen if the two swapped offensive approaches. Navy would call a more balanced mix of run and pass plays, while Utah would focus on dominating on the ground.

In this scenario both teams would struggle offensively and average roughly a touchdown less than they did in the baseline simulations. Although the average scores are reduced, the winning percentages remain relatively unchanged with Navy gaining just one percentage point. Our analysis demonstrates that both teams have tailored their offenses to suit their personnel and changing their game plan does not improve their chances for victory.