BASELINE: PENN STATE 73% TEXAS A&M 27%  |   FORECASTED SCORE 30-23

During the Joe Paterno era, The Nittany Lions have been near impossible to beat in bowl games and are winning over 73% of simulations by a solid seven point margin. Half of the simulations that Penn State won were by 10 or more points. Quarterback Anthony Morelli is throwing for 220 yards and a touchdown, while running back Rodney Kinlaw is projected for over 100 yards rushing and a touchdown.

The Texas A&M offense runs through Stephen McGee. The dual threat quarterback is projected to throw for 168 yards and a touchdown, while adding an additional 68 yards on the ground. The Aggie ground attack is rounded out by running backs Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson, who are projected to combine for 105 yards and a touchdown.

Which Anthony Morelli Will Lead Penn State?

The last two seasons for Anthony Morelli has been both good and bad. During his best 13 games, he averaged 220 yards a game and had 23 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. However, in the 11 other games (mostly against Big 10 defenses), Morelli’s average dropped to 177 yards a game, with six touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.

AccuScore’s baseline simulations reflected a “good” day for Morelli. However, we wanted to see how a “bad” day from Morelli would affect Penn State.

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When we used data exclusively from Morelli’s 11 sub-par games, Penn State wins probability decreases to 58% (15 percentage points lower than the baseline).  In this scenario, Morelli completes just 54% of passes for 172 yards while passing for 1.1 TDs and 1.2 INTs.

TEXAS A&M Offense Needs to Play to 2006 Levels

In 2006 Jorvorskie Lane, Stephen McGee and Mike Goodson averaged nearly 4.9 yards per carry and scored a touchdown on 6.5% of their rush attempts.  In 2007 their yards per carry were close to the same level (4.8 ypc), but their rushing touchdown rate dropped to 4.9%.  When you add the fact that McGee’s drop in completion percentage dropped from 62% (2006) to 58% (2007),  it is easy to see why Texas A&M failed to meet pre-season expectations.

AccuScore re-ran simulations with Texas A&M’s offense performing like they did in 2006.  If they can recapture that level of performance this game is a virtual coin flip. 

© AccuScore.com

The key is McGee’s accuracy which translates to more first downs, greater time of possession and far more Red Zone scoring opportunities.  Texas A&M scores +4 more points and by keeping Penn State’s offense off the field the Nittany Lions score 2 fewer points per simulation.