SOUTHERN MISS VS CINCINNATI

BASELINE:  CINCINNATI 80%, SMISS 20%  CIN 34 SMISS 20

Longtime Southern Miss coach Jeff Bower will be coaching in his last game in Papajohns.com Bowl against a very tough team in Cincinnati. The Bearcats are winning over 80 percent of simulations, with nearly 60% of those wins being by double digits.  Cincinnati will attack the Eagles through the air, with quarterback Ben Mauk projected to pass for 360 yards and at least 2 touchdowns.  His favorite targets are receivers Dominick Goodman and Marcus Barnett.  They are projected to catch 10 passes for nearly 150 yards.  Although both players have almost identical numbers in regards to catches and yards Barnett is a much bigger scoring threat having caught 13 touchdowns compared to 6 for Goodman.

Southern Miss is led by running back, Damion Fletcher who is projected to rush for over 100 yards. While Fletcher keys the offense, quarterback Jeremy Young is will need to pitch in through the air and is projected to throw for just 120 yards. With a low projected turnout in the passing game, Fletcher will be the key to the Eagles scoring and keeping this game close.  Ball security will also be a big issue for Southern Miss as Cincinnati is third in the nation in turnover margin.  The Eagles rank just 74th.  Not surprisingly, the Bearcats are winning the turnover battle in simulations easily. 

QUARTERBACK EXCHANGE?
Ben Mauk is clearly the star player in this game piling up yards through the air.  Southern Miss’ passing offense is positively anemic which limits what the team can do on offense and allows teams to focus on stopping Fletcher.  To demonstrate the importance of Mauk AccuScore simulated what would happen if he and Young switched teams with Mauk playing for Southern Miss and Young for Cincinnati.

© AccuScore.com

While Mauk is not the solely responsible for Cincinnati’s success, he very clearly makes a big difference.  Young is simply not a quarterback on par with Mauk.  When the two quarterbacks switch sides Cincinnati’s winning percentage drops a staggering 17 percentage points from 80 to 63 percent.

WHO SHOULD GET THE BULK OF CARRIES FOR CINCINNATI?
While Butler Benton began the season as the starter at running back for the Bearcats, he was replaced in the starting lineup by Jacob Ramsey midway through the year.  Neither player put up great numbers as the passing game was the focal point of the offense.  While Cincinnati seems undecided on who should be its feature back, AccuScore data shows Benton is the better option.  If Benton carried the full load at running back, AccuScore says the Bearcats win probability increased to 83 percent.