BASELINE: SOUTH FLORIDA 71% OREGON 29%  |  FORECASTED SCORE: SFLA 31 OR 22

After each team controlled their BCS destiny, Oregon and South Florida now find themselves squaring off in the Sun Bowl. Instead of meeting in New Orleans, they will meet in El Paso with South Florida winning a 71 percent of simulations by just under 10 points against the injury plagued Ducks.

South Florida’s offense relies on Matt Groethe and AccuScore is forecasting another big day for the quarterback. Only a sophomore, Groethe is projected to throw for 225 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. AccuScore projects close to 40 running plays for the Bulls, with Mike Ford, Benjamin Williams and Groethe racking up over 200 yards and two touchdowns the ground.

With relative unknown Justin Roper under center, the Ducks will look to Jonathan Stewart to carry the load. The junior running back is projected to have 25 carries and 112 yards rushing. Wide receivers Jaison Williams, Ed Dickson and Aaron Pflugrad will need to make big plays to offset the two turnovers and two sacks AccuScore projects for the Oregon offense.

The Value of Dennis Dixon
Had Dennis Dixon not been hurt, Oregon would not be playing in the Sun Bowl. His collapse was followed by the rest of his team, who went on to lose their last three games. AccuScore wanted to measure Dixon’s value beyond the win/loss column and see how his presence affects their win probability.

AccuScore simulated this game as if Dixon had not been injured and his team regained their form prior to playing Arizona. We disregarded all statistics generated from games against Arizona, UCLA and Oregon State and saw Oregon catapult from a 28 percent underdog to a 79 percent favorite showing Dixon’s value to be worth an astounding 51 percentage points.

© AccuScore.com

The Curse of #2
Both Oregon and South Florida fell victim to the “Curse of #2.”  AccuScore was curious to see how this game would play out if the Ducks and Bulls would have been able to maintain their dream seasons and side stepped the bad luck each encountered.

We re-simulated the game and disregarded all stats that each team generated in their losses and thereafter. Next, we replaced injuries as if they did not happen, most noticeably Dixon.

With both teams healthy and in peak form, an Oregon-South Florida match-up would be great with the Ducks holding a slight edge in winning 60 percent of the simulations by an average score of 30-25.

© AccuScore.com