AccuScore - OHIO STATE VS LSU in the BCS Title Game

OHIO STATE VS LSU in the BCS Title Game

Zach Rosenfield - AccuScore Analyst

BASELINE: OHIO STATE 38% LSU 62% | FORECASTED SCORE: LSU 28 OHIO STATE 23

After an unprecedented season of excitement, LSU and Ohio State will meet in the Super Dome to decide the BCS Championship. With the game in New Orleans, LSU will have a home field advantage and Ohio State will be eager to erase the nightmare of last year’s game.

AccuScore baseline simulations have LSU winning 62 % of the simulations by an average of five points. The key to LSU’s success starts with quarterback, Matt Flynn, and backup Ryan Perrilloux who is expected to see significant action. The two QBs are combining for solid passing numbers (175 yards passing, 1.2 TDs, 0.9 INTs per sim). Running back Jacob Hester will help balance the offense and is projected to rush for 100 yards and a touchdown while averaging five yards a carry.

The Ohio State offense goes through running back, Chris “Beaney” Wells, who is forecasted to rush for 129 yards and a touchdown. The running game will help to set up the pass and quarterback Todd Boeckman will throw the majority of his passes to Brian Robiske and Brian Hartline. Simulations show that the Buckeye defense will keep this game close with an average of three sacks and 1.5 turnovers.

What if This Were a Truly Neutral Field
LSU is 3-0 in BCS games played in the Super Dome, including beating Oklahoma to win the 2004 national championship. A big catalyst LSU being nearly a 2:1 favorite is simple geography. The Super Dome is in the heart of LSU country and less than an hour’s drive from Baton Rouge.

LSU has a distinct home field advantage and it is reflected in our baseline simulations. However, AccuScore wanted to know to what extent the home field advantage helped LSU. To properly measure this, we re-simulated the game at a true neutral site, and then reversed the location to give Ohio State the home field advantage.

CHAMPIONSHIP	LSU	OHST	SCORE
BASELINE	62%	38%	LSU 28, OHST 23
TRUE NEUTRAL FIELD	52%	48%	LSU 25, OHST 24
OHST HOME FIELD	40%	60%	OHST 27, LSU 23

The Super Dome is a huge X-factor for LSU and the primary reason why LSU is projected to win. When we moved this game to a neutral site, LSU’s win probability dropped 10 points and the game becomes a virtual coin flip. It gets worse for LSU if the roles were reversed and Ohio State had a virtual home game. When we simulated the game in Columbus, Ohio State won 60% of the simulations by an average score of 27-23.

Should LSU Start Ryan Perrilloux?
Ryan Perrilloux has had an up and down career at LSU primarily due to off-field distractions. His passing numbers, in far fewer attempts, are better than starter Matt Flynn’s numbers. While Perrilloux’s completion percentage and TD:INT ratio would not be as good if he were getting 100% of snaps, LSU is winning a higher percentage of simulations 66 % (a +4 percentage point improvement) with an average score of OHST 22, LSU 29 .

When Matt Flynn got 100% of the snaps at QB the simulation reports virtually the same results as the baseline. Statistically, here is how the two QBs compare getting 100% of Snaps:

100% OF SNAPS	WIN%	C-A	%	YD	TD	INT	RUSH	YD	TD
Ryan Perrilloux	66%	17-27	63%	192	1.2	0.8	9	35	0.4
Matt Flynn	62%	15-26	59%	172	1.1	0.9	8	25	0.3

There’s a reason why LSU has put up with Perrilloux’s off-field troubles.

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Markei1 said:

USC will destroy Ohio State in a rematch for the championship. And the week 3 game (USC vs. OH ST) will simply be a dress rehearsal for SC!!

Go TROJANS!!! FIGHT ON!!!

All of the above EAST COAST BIAS really SUCKS!!!!

August 05, 2008

iamBuckeyes said:

Well, there is no need to play the game. Not PG's Buckeye coworkers think that LSU is going to win in a close one. There is no need to play the game.

Yep, I thought OSU would beat Florida last year. I also thought the LSU would beat Kentucky and Arkansas. I even thought the Florida would beat Michigan this year. I admit when I am wrong. Will I see a post from you tomorrow if your wrong. I didn't think so.

What is your team by the way?

January 07, 2008

GEAUXKITTIES said:

LSU truely has better talent in its second string than ohio state does it's starters with the exception of 3 or 4 positions. It will really be more a matter of Les being able to coach them through a win.

January 07, 2008

Jamie said:

Now I call for a LSU rout. Ohio State is not even a top 25 team in my mind. They are a joke and although LSU is not a top 5 team either, LSU will destroy these big 10 jokers

January 06, 2008

JDOG said:

OHIO ST will more than show up.No spread needed Ost wins...They're NFLPLAYERS in ncaaf uniforms.LSU IS GOING DOWN.....

January 06, 2008

CJ_columbusOH said:

I agree with pg in the fact that OSU fans travel well, but you do have to agree LSU still has the advantage here. I'll give the edge to OSU as a team in whole and Tressel as the more Dominant coach. That being said I think OSU pulls off the win in a close one. OSU D way better than anyone thinks this year and they have the sideline to sideline speed as well, but a healthy Dorsey scares me. OSU wins 13-10

January 06, 2008

NOT pg said:

Well it's painfully obvious PG is a OSU athletic supporter. (Go wash your dirty chin, PG). My co-workers are rabid Bucs FANS, and they know LSU is gonna win a close one SOLELY BECAUSE of their virtual 'home field advantage'. So keep that 'school spirit' alive in your dreams, because THE Ohio State University Football Team doesn't stand a chance. Y'know, I'll bet you said Ohio State could beat Florida last year, didn't you?

January 06, 2008

HC said:

A home game for Ohio State? That made me laugh.

January 04, 2008

GoBlueInAtlanta said:

A home field advantage entails much more than just attendance. Sleeping in your own bed and being in familiar surroundings, i.e. not being distracted as much as the visitors are by pre-game festivities (been there, done that) are just two of the many huge pluses. Another is routine. When you fly half way across the country, your team's routine is altered as opposed to being an hour's drive away from the venue.

Being a Michigan fan, I am pulling for Ohio State to show that the Big Ten is not as far behind the SEC as the media keep perpetuating. Wisconsin made a horrible decision to go for a first down late in the game instead of kicking a field goal to make the score 21-20, otherwise they could have attempted a game-winning field goal instead of having to force a pass into the endzone. Then the Wolverines outplayed and outRAN the Gators and I expect the same from the Buckeyes!!

January 04, 2008

PG said:

Just because the game is an hour from Baton Rouge does not mean LSU has the home field advantage. OSU travels better than any team in the country and will pay to get more tickets than LSU fans will. Rest assured it will be 50-50 in the stadium at worst for the Buckeyes. It may even be a home field advantage for the BUCKEYES!

January 03, 2008

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