BASELINE:  FLORIDA ATLANTIC 48%  MEMPHIS 52%  SCORE 35-34

Florida Atlantic is making a surprise appearance in the postseason. The Owls defeated heavily favored Troy in the last week of the season to win the Sun Belt title, and a berth in the New Orleans Bowl.  It will be the first time the school has played in a bowl game.  It had been picked in the preseason to finish sixth out of seven teams in the Sun Belt before going 6-1 in conference play.  The Owls are in just their third year competing in the Sun Belt, and has only one senior starter which bodes well for their future as an up-and-coming program. 

Memphis bounced back from a 2-4 start to win five of its last six games to earn a bowl bid.  This game should be an entertaining affair as it is projected to be a close high-scoring affair. The Tigers are winning just under 52 percent of simulations by less than a point on average with the two teams combining for over 69 points. 

Florida Atlantic quarterback Rusty Smith is projected for over 310 yards and two touchdowns and Cortez Gent is a player to watch and is forecasted for 80 yards recieving.  He has over 1000 yards and 9 scores on the year. 

Memphis quarterback Martin Hankins is forecasted for 380 yards and two touchdowns passing.  Running backs Joseph Doss and T.J. Pitts should split carries for the Tigers and combine for 110 yards.

How Did They Fare Against Common Opponents
Memphis plays in Conference USA which is generally regarded as in the second tier below the six major BCS conferences.  The Sun Belt is thought of being a low-major, but this season’s results may begin to change those perceptions.  Memphis played two Sunbelt teams this season and lost both times 31-35 at Arkansas State and 7-21 at home against Middle Tennessee.  Florida Atlantic beat both teams during conference play 34-31 against Arkansas State and 27-14 against Middle Tennessee, both at home. 

AccuScore utilizes all past player data to simulate games. However, we created a scenario where we isolated the two games against common opponents and only used those data points to simulate the game.

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In this scenario when only data from common opponents is used Florida Atlantic’s winning percentage jumps from 48 to 61 percent, an increase of 13 percentage points.  While Florida Atlantic’s offensive production is the same in both simulations, Memphis is losing four points on average from the baseline simulations. 

This large change from Memphis being slightly favored to being a sizable underdog stems mostly from quarterback play.  Memphis quarterback Martin Hankins (who did not play against Middle Tennessee) is faring much better in baseline simulations than in this scenario.  His production drops 60 yards and one less score while being far less accurate than when all data is used in simulations.