New Mexico Bowl - Expanded Coverage

Jonathan Lee AccuScore Analyst
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BASELINE: NEVADA 53% NEW MEXICO 47% NEV 28 NMEX 27

New Mexico will have a big advantage in this bowl game getting to play at home on its campus at University Stadium. That advantage should translate into a big home crowd and Nevada will need to treat this like a true road game instead of a neutral site. The location of the game could play a big factor with the AccuScore computer showing this game to be very close. The Lobos are small underdogs winning just over 46% of the time by just a point margin on average. If this game were played at a neutral site that deficit would be significantly larger.

Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is projected to throw for 330 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is also rushing for nearly 65 yards per simulation. Running back Luke Lippincott is forecasted for over 130 yards rushing as well. New Mexico’s offense does not look nearly as impressive as Nevada’s with quarterback Donovan Porterie projected for a solid but unspectacular game with 205 yards and at least 1 touchdown. The Lobos lost leading rusher Rodney Ferguson after he was declared academically ineligible. Paul Baker should step in to replace Ferguson, and he is forecasted for 70 yards rushing.

What If The Game Were In Nevada?
If the script was flipped and this game was played at Nevada’s Mackay Stadium, the predicted outcome would be drastically different. In simulations where Nevada had the home field advantage, the Wolf Pack increased their win percentage 22 points to 75 percent and won games by an average of 10 points.

LOCATION	NEV	NMEX	SCORE
BASELINE	53%	47%	NEV 28, NMEX 27
@ NEVADA	75%	25%	NEV 35, NMEX 25

Can New Mexico Intercept Kaepernick
Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick has thrown just 3 interceptions this season. New Mexico’s defense is ranked just 70th in the country in interceptions. With Kaepernick averaging just 0.5 interceptions per simulation Nevada is basically making this game a dead-even match-up despite New Mexico having home field advantage.

If New Mexico can pressure Kaepernick and sack him 50% more than expected and force twice as many interceptions then they would improve their chances by 12 percentage points.