BASELINE:  PURDUE 70% CENTRAL MICHIGAN 30%    SCORE: 42-31

The Motor City Bowl will be a high scoring and entertaining game with both teams projected to put up big numbers. Purdue quarterback Curtis Painter should be the key figure and is forecasted to throw for over 350 yards and three touchdowns in a double digit win. Despite the Boilermakers winning 70 percent of simulations by an average 11 points, AccuScore projects Central Michigan to score at least 31 points. Quarterback Dan LeFevour leads the CMU offense and is forecasted for 245 yards and two touchdown passes to go along with 70 yards rushing.

Ontario Sneed 2006 vs. Ontario Sneed 2007
Central Michigan running back Ontario Sneed was a preseason candidate for the Doak Walker Award for the top running back in college football.  He was a freshman All-American and MAC freshman of the year in 2005 rushing for 1065 and 8 touchdowns.  He has two highest reception totals by a running back in a single season (51 in 2005, 52 in 2006) in school history. 

Although Sneed’s touchdowns were up this year, his overall production has significantly declined over the past two seasons.  Sneed has averaged just 4.1 yards per carry this season, down from 5.1 yards per carry in the two years prior.  In addition, he is CMU’s third leading rusher behind back-up Justin Hoskins and LeFevour.  The catalyst for Sneed’s decreased production is his lack of involvement in the passing game.  Sneed entered the year seventh on Central Michigan’s all-time receptions list, but he had just 20 catches with zero scores.  He caught seven touchdowns a season ago.

If you take away his 29 carry, 168 rushing yard performance against Toledo his drop-off would have been even more drastic.  In baseline simulations Sneed is averaging just 10.6 carries and 47 yards, but AccuScore wanted to know how Central Michigan would fare if the Sneed of old played in the Motor City Bowl. AccuScore removed all data from this season and only relied on 2006 data to simulate Sneed’s performance.

© AccuScore.com

While Purdue would still be heavily favored, Central Michigan’s chances of winning would improve by five percentage points under this scenario.  The Chippewas are certinaly hoping for a return to form for Sneed.

Can Central Michigan Play Like a Big 10 Team?
Curtis Painter is forecasted for a huge game because Central Michigan’s defense struggles against good QBs. They allowed 52 to Kansas, 45 to in their first meeting against Purdue and 70 to Clemson.  But if the defense can magically perform as well as the average Big 10 defense that Purdue faced this season they would have a 40% chance of winning the game.

© AccuScore.com