BASELINE: MISSOURI 61%  ARKANSAS 39%  |  FORECASTED SCORE: MO 39  ARK 33

Missouri may have been shut out of the BCS, but they still get a New Year’s showcase against Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl. The 11-2 Tigers have a 61 percent win probability and are winning AccuScore simulations by average of six points.  Missouri is led by Heisman finalist, Chase Daniel who is forecasted to throw for 345 yards and three touchdowns. Daniel is armed with numerous weapons including Jeremy Maclin, William Franklin, Martin Rucker and a healthy Chase Coffman.

Arkansas showcases the dual running back threat of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, who were responsible for temporarily derailing LSU’s national championship hopes. Missouri gave up a lot of rushing yards in the Big 12 Championship game and the Heisman runner-up and Jones look to pick up where the Sooners left off. AccuScore simulations show the duo combining for over 250 yards on 40 carries while accounting for 2.5 touchdowns.

Wild Hog Formation All Game Long?
A lot has been made of the “Wildhog” offense and the headache it gave LSU the day after Thanksgiving. With McFadden taking snaps in the Wildhog, Arkansas gives defenses an entirely different look. The difference in approach makes for great talk radio, and also is a reason to summon the AccuScore computer. We wanted to see how the Hogs would perform if they abandoned their traditional offense and committed to using McFadden in the Wildhog for 100 percent of the game.

Normal starter Casey Dick is a more effective passer than McFadden, so pass production is the first area the offense to suffer. That means the simulation comes down to what would happen if Arkansas almost exclusively relied on the run.    

However, Arkansas’ winning percentage only increased by fractions of a decimal point and was not able to overcome the deficiency in the passing game.  Running the Wildhog might not help Arkansas, but it certainly won’t hurt.  For pure entertainment purposes, we’d like to see it happen.

Should Arkansas Totally Focus on Stopping Jeremy Maclin?
Although he is only a freshman, Jeremy Maclin has quickly established himself as one of the most dangerous players in college football. The Big 12 Freshman of the Year is Daniel’s most explosive target and equally tough to defend on special teams.

AccuScore ran simulations where Arkansas totally avoided Maclin in kick and punt return situations, even if it meant conceding 15 to 25 yards of field position.  We also geared the defense to pay special attention to Maclin’s receptions out of the backfield even if it meant more “easy” completions to the other Tigers receivers. 

By reducing Maclin’s touches from 13.1 to 5.7, his overall productivity dropped from 175.3 to 71.1 total yards. The 104.1 difference results in Arkansas win probability climbing from 39 to 43 percent. The four percent difference demonstrates Maclin’s impact and reducing his touches is the key to a competitive Cotton Bowl.

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