BASELINE:  BYU 62% UCLA 38%   SCORE 27-23

With the firing of coach Karl Dorrell, defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker will serve as interim head coach during the Las Vegas Bowl.  A new coach has not yet been hired, and many believe this could be a one-game audition.  If the team performs well, he could state his case to receive the job on a full-time basis.  The Bruins greatly underachieved this season finishing just 6-6 when they were expected to be a top-15 caliber team.  A win over USC and 20 returning starters had created a feeling of optimism around Westwood, but those failed expectations led to the Dorrell’s dismissal. 

The Bruins did beat BYU 27-17 earlier this season, but that was on September 8 and both teams have changed significantly since then.  UCLA won just one of its last four games and fizzled down the stretch yet again. BYU rebounded from the early season loss to the Bruins to finish 10-2, and unbeaten in the Mountain West. The Cougars are clearly the program in better shape, and that is translating into a win in 62 percent of simulations. Quarterback Max Hall should be the star with 200 yards passing and two scores.  Freshman Harvey Unga had a terrific freshman season with 1211 yards, and 13 touchdowns.  He is a physical straight-line type of runner, and is projected for 75 yards rushing. 

UCLA will start Osaar Rasshan at quarterback with both Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan still suffering from injuries.  Running back Chris Markey will be critical to UCLA’s chances as most of the offense figures to come on the ground.  Markey is projected for 80 yards and 4.3 yards per carry.  This will be BYU's third straight appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Cougars lost to Cal in 2005, and beat Oregon a year ago.

Rasshan, Olson or Cowan?
The Bruins have ridden the quarterback carousel all year due to injuries and ineffectiveness.  They started the season with two experienced signal callers in Olson and Cowan, but eventually played four different players at the position including a redshirt freshman walk-on and a sophomore who had been switched to wide receiver (Rasshan).  Cowan is remembered fondly by Bruin fans for being the starter in the victory over USC a season ago.  He was not able to duplicate the feat this year, and he won’t be able to play in the bowl game as he has been slow to recover from a myriad of injuries. Olson was slated to start for UCLA, but he re-aggravated a knee injury in practice leaving Rasshan as the only healthy scholarship quarterback remaining.  Both Olson and Rasshan are upgrades over Cowan.  If either player started it would represent an 8% increase in winning percentage over Cowan.  Even though Olson is the more accurate passer, and would throw for a better touchdown-to-interception ratio, he is very immobile and would face pressure all game against a tough BYU defense.  Rasshan provides another dimension with his dynamic athletic ability to make plays with his feet.

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The Value of Khalil Bell
When UCLA beat BYU in September, Khalil Bell led the team with 79 rushing yards (4.9 ypc) and 1 rushing TD.  Current starter Chris Markey had just 50 yards on 16 carries (3.1 ypc).  Bell went on to have several more explosive games most notably 109 yards against Washington and 142 yards against California.  He was lost for the year after tearing his ACL in a loss to Washington State.  Markey has been positively mediocre this season after rushing for more than 1000 yards in 2006.  He has run for just 598 yards on 149 carries this season.  Bell rushed for 197 more yards on 7 less carries.  If Bell was not injured UCLA would be projected to win 44% of simulations, a sizable increase of six percentage points.

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