BASELINE:  TEXAS 60% ARIZONA STATE 40%  SCORE 32-28

Texas will take on Arizona State in what is likely the best match-up of the early bowl season. Both teams are probably disappointed at not being part of the BCS party, but this traditional face-off between the Big 12 and the Pac-10 should be a good one.

The Longhorns are winning over 60% of simulations by just over four points on average. Colt McCoy is projected to throw for 255 yards while throwing an equal amount of touchdowns and interceptions. On the ground, Jamaal Charles is forecasted to continue his late season surge by rushing for over 155 yards and at least one touchdown.

Sun Devil quarterback Rudy Carpenter is forecasted for 215 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. The ASU defense is also forcing 2.5 turnovers per simulation (compared to 1.85 for Texas) which should give the Sun Devils quality scoring opportunities.

Jamaal Charles Dictates Who Wins
There will be plenty of attention paid to quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Rudy Carpenter, but AccuScore says Jamaal Charles is the real key to the game.

AccuScore simulated two different scenarios.  In the first situation, we simulated the game without Charles and saw Texas’s wins probability decrease 16 percentage points to 44 percent.  In the second scenario, we simulated the game where the Sun Devils were able to contain Charles, thus making the game much closer.

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Charles is Texas’ true trump card.  His speed and big-play ability gives the Longhorns the ability to score from anywhere on the field, and opens up room for the receivers to operate downfield and over the middle.  If Arizona State can contain Charles on a neutral field, then the game is a true coin-flip.  However, our baseline simulations forecast Charles to have a strong game, thus making Texas favored as a result.