EAST CAROLINA VS BOISE STATE

BASELINE:  BOISE STATE 74%  EAST CAROLINA 26%  SCORE: 42-29

In its last game in Honolulu, Boise State lost to Hawaii and failed to win a sixth consecutive WAC title. A year removed from the BCS, the Broncos return to the islands as a 75 percent favorite against East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl. Simulations have the Broncos scoring over 42 points with quarterback Taylor Tharp throwing for 245 yards and at least two scores.  Tharp’s main target is sophomore Jeremy Childs.  The California native had a breakout season with 82 catches for 1045 yards and nine touchdowns.  He is projected for at least 60 yards on 5.6 receptions. Ian Johnson will continue to be a focal point for the Broncos ground game and is forecasted to rush for 85 yards and a score.

Running back Chris Johnson will carry the load for East Carolina and is projected to have more than 105 yards on less than 20 carries.  East Carolina will rotate Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass at quarterback.  The duo is combining to throw for over 223 yards and 1.6 touchdowns with just 0.7 interceptions in simulations.

Pick Youth Over Experience?
Ian Johnson has scored 45 touchdowns in his three-year career, and rushed for 2744 yards the past two seasons.  He vaulted to prominence last season by scoring the winning touchdown against Oklahoma in last year’s classic Fiesta Bowl before proposing to his girlfriend on national television.  By all accounts Johnson is a college football star, but if you were to look at this year’s production freshman Jeremy Avery has been better on a per carry basis.  Johnson missed two games earlier this season due to injury, and in those games Avery ran for 234 yards and four touchdowns.

Avery ran for an impressive 6.1 yards per carry.  While Johnson ran for a healthy 5.1 yards per carry himself, Avery has clearly shown big play ability.  Although the difference in per carry average may be due to differences in situation and opponent AccuScore replayed this game with Avery as the primary back.  In this situation Boise State won 77 percent of simulations.  That represents an increase of three percentage points over the baseline simulations.  While Johnson is the workhorse for the Broncos and is obviously a very good player, Avery just may be the more talented player.

© AccuScore.com

East Carolina Should Stick With Patrick Pinkney?
East Carolina has utilized two quarterbacks all season rotating Patrick Pinkney and Robb Kass under center.  Pinkney has been more accurate with a better touchdown-to-interception ratio than Kass.  He also brings another dimension to the offense with his mobility.  Pinkney has rushed for 253 yards this season compared to just 13 for Kass.  Kass did play very well against Tulane in the final game of the regular season going 12-18 for 177 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.

The final game aside, East Carolina is better off with Pinkney at quarterback rather than splitting snaps with Kass. Under this scenario, East Carolina would win 32 percent of simulations which is a six percentage point improvement.