| Friday Tailgate - Ohio State and USC Clash |
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WEEKLY GAME OF THE CENTURY (5) Ohio State at (1) USC  Beanie Wells status for the game is up in the air. Enough with the talking, and play the game already. Number five Ohio State has several questions to answer as it heads into its titanic showdown with top-ranked USC. Are the Buckeyes up to the challenge of playing on the road? Can they come through against a quality opponent in a big-time game? What is the status of Beanie Wells, and how much will freshman Terrelle Pryor play? I can’t answer those questions for you. Luckily, they will all be answered on the field Saturday. Bettors and bookmakers were less than impressed with Ohio State’s escape last weekend against THE Ohio University and have made the Trojans double-digit favorites. AccuScore simulations agree with that line of thinking having USC winning by nine points. That simulation scenario has Wells playing, but not at complete full strength sharing carries with Maurice Wells, Daniel Herron, and Pryor also receiving carries. Interestingly, with Wells at full strength as the primary ball carrier the Buckeyes’ chances for victory actually decreases from 26 percent to 25. The shift is small, but counterintuitive considering that Wells is one of the best players in the nation, and a legitimate Heisman candidate. This is likely due to more plays being run for the dynamic Pryor from the quarterback position. The freshman played sparingly last weekend, and whether that was because Jim Tressel didn’t trust him, or that he was trying to hide him, he should play him Saturday in Los Angeles. It will give Ohio State a better shot at winning by presenting the fast, aggressive Trojan defense a greatly different, non-traditional look. Playing Todd Boeckman for 80 snaps and trying to play USC head on won’t work unless the Buckeyes play a perfect contest. Pryor could change the balance of the game with his ability to create a big play. USC looked fantastic in its opener against a weak Virginia squad. It’s hard to judge off of one game against an vastly inferior opponent, but the main thing to take from that game was that USC appears to have found a vertical passing game with Mark Sanchez under center and the maturation of a young receiving core. Ohio State’s defense is touted as one of the best in the country, and returned almost every player from a year ago. It will need to find an answer for the varied looks it will get from the many Trojan running backs and the overall team speed of USC. Other Games to Watch: (13) Kansas at (19) South Florida Fair or not, South Florida now carries with it the pride and hopes of the Big East. The conference as a whole, after Thursday’s miserable showing by Rutgers, is now 0-11 against the spread in non-conference match-ups. Simply put, the Big East absolutely needs the Bulls to win this game to salvage any kind of credibility in this 2008 season. AccuScore simulations have Kansas though as the slight favorite even on the road against a ranked opponent. The key match-up to watch will be Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing against Georgie Selvie and the South Florida pass rush. If Reesing has time to throw, he will likely be able to pick apart the USF secondary. He is projected for 190 yards passing and two touchdowns. Running back Mike Ford, projected for over 65 yards rushing, is questionable. If he can’t go the Bulls will probably look to quarterback Matt Grothe even more to run the ball as well as Moise Plancher who already has scored three times this season. UCLA at (18) BYU  Which Kevin Craft will show up in Provo? The Cougars are averaging 512 yards of offense through their first two games, 412 through the air. They also have the nation’s leading receiver lining up at tight end in Dennis Pitta (180.5 yds/gm). The offense as a whole is not so much explosive as deadly efficient also featuring sure-handed receiver Austin Collie and the bruising backfield duo of Harvey Unga and Fui Vakapuna. The defense is another story. The line is talented and experienced, but the Cougars have been breaking in a brand new back eight (they run a 3-4). BYU’s first two opponents, Northern Iowa and Washington, have moved the ball fairly well running for 282 combined yards and nearly 700 yards of total offense. The game against UNI was never in doubt, but a botched penalty call and a special teams block were needed to save that game. BYU is a solid team, but might be a tad overrated at No.18. UCLA is of course coming off its shocking upset over Tennessee. The chances of the Bruins winning again hinge on the play of quarterback Kevin Craft: will he be the one from the first half when he threw four interceptions or the poised player from the second half that picked apart the Vols for two fourth quarter scores? He will have to do it without three senior weapons on offense, and a continually shifting offensive line group. The Cougars are still the clear favorite getting to host this game in Provo, but the margin could wind up very close. (14) ECU at Tulane After starting the season with two huge upset victories, the Pirates jumped all the way to number 14 in the polls. That makes them a fairly safe bet to reach a BCS game provided they can hold serve and stay undefeated. The remaining schedule looks very easy with Conference USA down a bit. Virginia and North Carolina State gives East Carolina two more BCS opponents, but the Cavs and Wolfpack are quite honestly terrible teams. The main challenge for Skip Holtz’s crew will be to handle the inevitable hype and media coverage, and focus on each and every game starting Saturday at Tulane. The Pirates win with a steady offense and tough defense. There won’t be many blow-outs so they need to bring it each and every week. (10) Wisconsin at (21) Fresno State The Big 10 has another top-25 clash this weekend in California; it’s just a tad bit more low-profile than that other game 200 miles to the south. Fresno State has always had an “anybody, anywhere” mentality when scheduling games and that could finally pay off in 2008. The Bulldogs have a talented squad with the ability to win a spot in the BCS provided they win this week, and again in two weeks against UCLA. Our simulations have this game being decided by less than two points meaning both teams are almost even on paper. Fresno State has the advantage of playing at home.  A win could propel Fresno State into the BCS discussion. This contest will be won or lost on the ground. While quarterbacks Allan Evridge and Tom Brandstater are certainly capable, they both have much more talented teammates in the backfield. Wisconsin’s P.J. Hill has been running around and over people since he hit campus as a freshman. He is forecasted for better than 130 yards and nearly 6 yards per carry. Fresno’s Ryan Mathews is an unknown nationally, but he may have his coming out party Saturday if he can lead his team to a win. He is projected to outdo Hill with more than 140 yards and 7 yards per carry. Whichever squad runs the ball more effectively likely wins this game. HURRICANES WIN OUT AGAIN For the second consecutive week a top-10 team was forced to reschedule a game due to an imminent threat from weather. Texas has postponed its game against Arkansas due to Hurricane Ike. Instead of playing Saturday afternoon in Austin, the game will played September 27. "We have been monitoring this situation since Sunday and, at this time, feel confident this is the right thing to do," Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds said. "A football game becomes less important when you are dealing with the safety of the people at Texas." Last week, LSU was forced to postpone its game against Troy because of the effects of Hurricane Gustav. Other games have also been affected by the storm. The Stanford-TCU tilt in Fort Worth has been moved up to 1 p.m. ET. Houston, which hosts Air Force, moved its contest from Robertson Stadium in Houston to Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas on the campus of SMU. RETURN OF THE BLACKSHIRTS? Western Michigan and San Jose State are not typically associated with offensive powerhouses. But with the way Nebraska has played defense in recent years, Husker fans will surely take the solid opening performances on the defensive side of the ball. While not yet worthy of the old Blackshirt moniker bestowed upon the formerly imposing Nebraska defensive units, this year’s version has allowed just 703 total yards and 36 points in the first two games. A year ago, Nebraska allowed an average of 477 yards and 38 points per game. While the numbers aren’t quite dominant and the opponents are questionable, new coach Bo Pelini will surely take it. QUARTERBACK SHUFFLE Quarterback is the most important position on the field and many coaches are still searching for answers under center. Several teams have already changed signal-callers due to either ineffectiveness or injury: Iowa – Ricky Stanzi has won the job over incumbent Jake Christensen and will start Saturday.Navy – Jarrod Bryant heads to the bench now that Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku Enhada is healthy.Cincinnati – Dustin Grutza has a broken leg leaving the job to Tony Pike. Will we see Notre Dame transfer Demetrius Jones?Cal – Nate Longshore held the job for three seasons before his poor late season performance in 2007 led to Kevin Riley being named the starter in fall camp. Riley has led the Bears to 104 points through two games. He’s keeping the job.Florida State – Drew Weatherford is finally relegated to the bench. There is much rejoicing among Seminole fans. Sophomore Christian Ponder threw for three touchdowns in the opener. Trackback(0)
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Jonathan Lee AccuScore Analyst
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