BASELINE: OREGON STATE 52% MARYLAND 48%  |  SCORE: 26-25

The ACC squares off against the Pac-10 in the Emerald Bowl. It is held at AT&T Park, home of the San Francisco Giants, and will feature an interesting layout since it usually does not host football games.  Temporary bleachers will be placed in the outfield, and the outfield wall gives the potential for Arena Football style collisions in one end zone.

Oregon State finished the season strong winning its last three games. Quarterback Lyle Moevao replaced injured starter Sean Canfield late in the year, and will once again start for the Beavers.  He is projected for just 125 yards passing and under one touchdown per simulation. 

Maryland has been up and down all year having won two of its last three games following a three game losing streak.  The Terrapins will rely on its power running game with Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball.  The duo is combining for 140 yards and 1.5 scores on average.

WHO SHOULD START FOR MARYLAND AT QB?
Jordan Steffy began the season as the starter at quarterback for Maryland until he suffered a concussion Rutgers on September 29.  Chris Turner came in, guided the Terrapins to a win and has remained the starter.  In baseline simulations, Turner comes close to pulling off the upset winning 48% of simulations.  In simulations with Steffy as the starter, Maryland’s winning percentage drops to 45%.

© AccuScore.com

Turner is clearly the better option for Maryland in this game.  Tuner has a higher completion percentage, is throwing for more yards, more touchdowns, and fewer interceptions.

IMPACT OF YVENSON BERNARD
Oregon State running back Yvenson Bernard had arthroscopic surgery on his knee late in the year and is questionable for the bowl game.  He has maintained that he will play, but he has sat out several bowl practices while continuing to rehab his knee.  If he plays, he likely will not be at full strength.  AccuScore decided to play what if and simulated the game with Bernard at his best, and with him not playing at all.

© AccuScore.com

With Bernard out of the lineup, Oregon State’s winning percentage dips under 50 percent. However, if he is at full-strength and capable of being the featured back, the Beavers’ probability of winning improves three percentage points to 55 percent.