Champs Sports Bowl - Expanded Coverage

Jonathan Lee AccuScore Analyst
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BASELINE: BOSTON COLLEGE 62% MICHIGAN STATE 38% | FORECASTED SCORE: 30-25

Michigan State will face a stiff challenge in the Champs Sports Bowl in Boston College. The Spartans have been mediocre all year finishing just 3-5 in the Big Ten. The Eagles won their first eight games of the year to reach No.2 in the nation before eventually falling to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game.

Boston College is winning over 60 percent of simulations by an average margin of six points. Matt Ryan should be the offensive star and is projected to throw for over 345 yards passing and at least two touchdowns. Running back Andre Callender will help balance the offense by contributing 70 yards on the ground and five catches for 50 yards.

Michigan State has a strong pair of running backs in Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick. They are combining to rush for 175 yards per simulation. Caulcrick will likely get any short-yardage or goal line carries as he has scored 21 times this season (six for Ringer).

Is Matt Ryan That Much Better than Brian Hoyer?
Many pundits project Ryan to be one of the best quarterback prospects this season, and he will likely be taken in the early first round in the 2008 NFL Draft. He may certainly be the better NFL prospect, but AccuScore wanted to see just how much better a college player he is than Spartan quarterback, Brian Hoyer. AccuScore swapped the two quarterbacks and re-simulated the game and found only a minor difference in win probability.

SCENARIO	BC	MST
BASELINE	62%	38%
QB SWITCH	60%	40%

Ryan has the simulation edge in accuracy and touchdowns per completion, and this translates to a slight two percent advantage over his Michigan State counterpart. The difference is not much larger because Hoyer is throwing fewer interceptions per simulation (0.6 to 1.4). Hoyer has quietly had a solid season for Michigan State with 2594 yards, 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions, which statistically holds up against Ryan’s.

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