BASELINE: UCF 63% MISS ST 37%  |  FORECASTED SCORE 33-26

The Liberty Bowl will feature the best player that nobody knows in running back Kevin Smith. The junior has rushed for 2448 yards and 29 touchdowns on the year. He is incredibly within striking distance of Barry Sanders’ record of 2628 rushing yards set back in 1988.

He is leading his Knights to victory in over 60 percent of simulations by rushing for nearly 160 yards and at least one score.  That total would leave Smith just 20 yards short of Sanders’ record mark.  Knights quarterback Kyle Israel is throwing for 200 yards a score on average and getting the ball to multiple receivers.   With defenses keying on Smith, Israel will get time to throw and is projected to be sacked only 1.5 times.

Mississippi State will be looking to finish off a promising season with a victory and gain some momentum for the 2008 season.  Bulldogs quarterback Wesley Carroll is an efficient passer and is projected to throw for 210 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception. Carroll’s effectiveness is set-up by a bruising rushing attack that should account for 150 yards with Anthony Dixon getting the bulk of the carries.

MISSISSIPPI STATE VERSUS KEVIN SMITH
Kevin Smith is clearly the key factor in this game.  For Mississippi State to have a chance its defense must be able to at least reasonably slow him down.  In the average simulation the Knights running back is cranking out yardage and has a 65 percent chance of rushing for two or more touchdowns.

AccuScore looked to see how effective Mississippi State run defense needs to be to gain an overall edge in the game.  To make this game a 50-50 proposition, Mississippi State must hold Smith to just 3.7 yards per carry, down from 4.2 yards on average in the baseline simulations.  In short yardage and goal-line situations they must cut his ability to convert for first downs or scores in half.  This not only helps reduce Smith’s average yards per carry, but also holds him to 0.5 fewer rushing touchdowns per simulation.

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If the Bulldogs can slow down Smith, their chances of winning increase 17 percentage points.  Clearly Sylvester Croom must decide to stop Smith, and force the other players from Central Florida to step up and make plays.